Market Insights

Fourth-quarter earnings season has begun. Financials were the first major sector to report and the agenda will soon turn to large technology companies like Microsoft and Apple. This article will cover some key dates and recent news on these major growth stocks. It will also examine price action in the key semiconductor group.

Recent News

• Stocks are bouncing after sentiment reached its most pessimistic levels in over a year. Moderate inflation data helped boost revived confidence as the S&P 500 pushes toward the top of its intermediate-term range.
• Earnings growth is expected to return to double-digits for the first time since the last quarter of 2021, according to FactSet. Consensus analyst estimates look for an increase of 12.5 percent, partially driven by Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
• Apple (AAPL) has declined on worries about weak iPhone sales and market-share losses in China. It started with a note from Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities on January 10. Four days later, IDC reported that Chinese brands like Xiaomi were gaining traction with lower-priced handsets. Counterpoint Research and Canalys issued similar notes. There have also been delays with its AI rollout and the stock was downgraded yesterday by Jefferies.
• Stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Oracle (ORCL) climbed on Tuesday after CBS News reported President Trump will commit as much as $500 billion to domestic AI companies under a project called Stargate.
• Intel (INTC), the only stock on the table above that’s down in the last two years, has led so far in 2025. The chipmaker has bounced on reports Elon Musk recently considered a purchase. HSBC also upgraded the chipmaker from Reduce to Hold, saying recent struggles were priced in.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

• Barclays and UBS issued positive reports on NVDA. Barclays forecast 60 percent growth in GPU sales and predicted the custom-silicon market will grow at a 55 percent compound annualized rate for the next three years. UBS revised its estimates for Blackwell chips sharply higher.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) boosted sentiment toward chip stocks last week by reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue. The foundry giant also said AI sales will double this year.
• There may be potentially bullish patterns on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX), which holds companies like NVDA, Broadcom (AVGO) and TSM. $SOX rallied more than 80 percent between October 2023 and July 2024. It pulled back sharply but held a low from last April before settling into a range. It’s made a series of higher lows while following its rising 200-day moving average. Some chart watchers may view that as evidence of a longer-term uptrend.