Market Insights

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Next presentation: State of the Market on Monday, 9/8.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 pushes above July 28 record close
• 14-day ROC remains steadily positive
• RSI sitting near overbought
• Intermarket:
  • VIX revisits December lows
  • 10-year Treasury yield holds below 4.3
  • U.S. Dollar Index continues lower

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators. 

Value Rotation Underway?

• Creative Planning: NVDA+MSFT = 15 percent of S&P 500, the most ever
• Recent dealmaking:
  • GBIO rallies: “evaluating strategic options”
  • SCS acquired by HNI (office furniture)
  • HBI acquired by GIL
  • SPNS acquired by Advent
  • HI rallies: Bloomberg reports potential sale
  • CNBC: Perplexity AI offers to buy Chrome browser from GOOGL
• Strategic actions: 1 of 7 Key Catalysts for stock movement
  • Definition: unlocking value from the corporate entity without fundamental business changes
  • M&A, buybacks, spinoffs, dividends

News & Views

• CME FedWatch tool: 98 percent chance of rate cut on 9/17
  • Next items to watch:
    • Tomorrow: Retail sales
    • 8/22: Powell at Jackson Hole (likely)
• Moody’s downgrades INTC credit, citing weak profits
• S&P upgrades UAL credit, citing profitability and global revenue
• Energy headwinds?
  • Crude oil inventories +3mln vs -900 estimate
  • IEA: Oil market “ever more bloated” as OPEC+ pushes supply ahead of demand
  • Trump-Putin meeting tomorrow seen as potential catalyst
  • Will cheaper crude help the Fed’s doves?
• Cannabis stocks rally on potential rescheduling: TLRY GRWG CRON ACB
• AI still driving high bandwidth memory (HBM)
  • SK Hynix: HBM market to grow 30 percent in 2026
  • MU raises guidance amid strong orders
• BofA: Raises AVT target from $48 to $50 amid potentially positive order trends (despite Underperform rating).
• Capital Economics: Chinese stocks may rebound as news improves and earnings stabilize

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: AMAT
• Fri 8/15: Retail sales
• Mon 8/18: NAHB housing index
• Tue 8/19: Housing starts / building permits
  • Earnings: HD
• Wed 8/20: *Fed minutes*
  • Earnings: BIDU
• Thu 8/21: Jobless claims
  • Earnings: WMT
• Fri 8/22: *Powell Jackson Hole Speech*