Market Insights

Gold is having its best year since Jimmy Carter was in office and silver has its biggest gain since the Global Financial Crisis. Today we’ll consider some key products associated with the trend as metals enter the homestretch of 2025.

This table shows the year-to-date performance of key assets like gold, silver and equity products like the S&P 500 and tech stocks. It shows a clear outperformance in metals, despite a big rally in AI stocks.

At least four catalysts have been driving the move:

1. Central bank buying: Central banks started acquiring bullion aggressively in 2022, according to the World Gold Council. That drove prices to new highs by March 2024, establishing an uptrend that’s accelerated since. The buying has continued this year.
2. A falling U.S. dollar: The greenback started 2025 at a 27-month high. It slid sharply in the first half, and this month touched its lowest level in more than three years. Because metals are priced in fiat currencies, a weak dollar often boosts the nominal price of gold and silver.
3. Trade and political uncertainty: President Trump announced higher-than-expected tariffs in April, and has continued to impose new import duties since. Investors face additional uncertainty with the U.S. Supreme Court hearing a case to potentially overturn some of the tariffs. Oral arguments are scheduled for November 5, with a decision likely the first half of 2026. The ongoing government shutdown adds to the uncertainty.
4. Interest-rate cuts: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, its first reduction since December. CME’s FedWatch tool shows the market expects another 75 basis points of easing by March 2026.

Stocks vs Gold

While it may feel like the rally in gold is sudden, the trend has been taking shape for years. The chart below uses TradeStation’s advanced charting to compare the price of the S&P 500 stock index against the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which tracks the metal’s price.

Price ratio of the S&P 500 to the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), weekly chart, with key events marked.

Notice how the S&P 500 started appreciating relative to gold in October 2011. (That’s when stocks began their recovery from the subprime crisis, followed 1-1/2 years later by a breakout to new highs.) Gold lagged stocks in the following decade, which might be surprising because interest rates were super low. However, there was little political uncertainty and global central banks weren’t active buyers. That was even true during the chaos of the pandemic.

Things changed in early 2022 when the U.S. placed heavy sanctions on Russia and the Fed started hiking interest rates. Gold and stocks both fell in absolute terms, but stocks fell more. The next big event was February 2024, when gold crossed $2,000 for the first time and its rally hasn’t paused since. (Yesterday it crossed $4,000 for the first time.) This year’s percentage change is the highest since 1979.

Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium

Gold led the charge in the first phase of the rally, but recent months have seen investors seeking opportunities in other metals.

• Silver hit a multiyear high in June, consolidated in July and accelerated in August. Its gain this year is the highest since 2010.
• Platinum escaped a multiyear downtrend — also in June — and climbed about 36 percent. It pulled back in August, rebounded in late September and hit an 11-year high this week.
• Palladium bottomed under $1,000 in 2024 and early 2025. It inched higher in the spring, pulled back and its gains have accelerated since last month.

Such widening is common in financial markets as a new catalyst lifts one or two stocks before widening to others. For example, Nvidia (NVDA) led the current AI boom before other tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Micron Technology (MU) joined the trend.

Stocks, ETFs and Options

Customers looking to participate in the metals trade have alternatives in the stock, options and futures markets.

This table lists equity products, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with exposure to metals. These symbols trade actively as stocks and as underliers in the options market. That can help traders use strategies like vertical spreads and covered calls in addition to transacting shares.

Gold futures (@GC), silver futures (@SI) and platinum futures (@PL), year-to-date-percentage chart.

Metals Futures

As commodities, metals like gold and silver also have futures contracts. These are derivatives that track underlying prices, letting traders take long or short positions almost around the clock.

This table lists some of the key futures contracts on metals.

In conclusion, metals like gold and silver are in the midst of historic rallies. Hopefully this article helps you understand some of the ways traders are participating in the moves.

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Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.

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