January 16, 2025

Are 3 Months of Consolidation Ending?

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 1/27.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

S&P 500 rallies 1.8%, the most since 11/6 (day after election)
Potential bullish flag after testing Election Day close
63-day rate of change continues positive run that began in November 2023
3-month consolidation phase potentially ending as breadth improves
S&P 500 members yesterday had the most:
- 52-week highs since 12/11
- Members above 20-day MA since 12/4

Intermarket signals:

10-year Treasury yield stalls at 4.75% area from November 2023 and April 2024.

*SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.*

Inflation & Rates

CPI +0.3% in December. Y/Y core +3.2%. Both 0.1 point below estimates.
- Shelter has smallest Y/Y gain since January 2022

John Williams of NY Fed: Inflation going to 2%, expectations are anchored

Goolsbee: Neutral rate is still lower (implies rate cuts)

UK inflation 0.1 point lower than expected, spurring rate-cut optimism

Empire index -12.6 in January, missing +3 estimate. New orders weak

Regulator Departures

Some noteworthy changes around the arrival of President Trump:

Leaving	Potential Replacement	Position
Lina Khan	Andrew Furguson	FTC Chair
Gary Gensler	Paul Atkins	SEC Chair
Paul Munter	N/A	SEC Chief Accountant
Michael Barr	N/A	Vice Chair for Supervision at Fed

News & Views

Financials jump on strong results: GS WFC JPM C BK BLK
FactSet: S&P 500 earnings likely to grow 14% in Q4, the most since Q4 of 2021.
MarketWatch: Trump SEC nominee Paul Atkins viewed as more favorable for financial sector
GS CEO David Solomon: Backlog in dealmaking, increased CEO confidence post-election
NVDA announces Quantum Day at GTC 2025 on 3/20
- Comes after active CEO Jensen Huang expressed skepticism about quantum computing’s near-term prospects, which impacted related stocks in the field.

Upcoming Events

Fri 1/17: Housing starts, building permits
- Earnings: SLB TFC

Mon 1/20: MLK Day – Market Closed

Tue 1/21:

Premarket earnings: MMM SCHW KEY DHI
Post market earnings: NFLX UAL

Wed 1/22:

Premarket earnings: JNJ PG

Thu 1/23: Jobless claims, crude oil inventories

Premarket earnings: FCX GE

**Standardized Performances for ETFs mentioned above**
ETF	1 Year	5 Years	10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	+23.30%	+82.09%	+185.14%
As of December 31, 2024. Based on TradeStation Data.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.