Market Insights

Dramatic rotation continues in the stock market as old leaders crumble and value stocks break out.

The S&P 500 was little changed between Friday, January 30, and Friday, February 6. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.5 percent to close above 50,000 for the first time.

Significant changes occurred beneath the surface as high-multiple growth stocks continued struggling. The three key sectors dominated by these companies fell, while every other sector rose:

• Communications, home to Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL), slid 3.6 percent. Both companies are down despite reporting strong results this earnings season.
• Consumer discretionary, home to Amazon.com (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA), fell 2.6 percent.
• Technology, home to Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), declined 1.9 percent.

The underperformance represented an acceleration of established trends. Software companies, in particular, fell on worries that AI would disrupt their business models. Anthropic also launched a legal plugin that raised worries about knowledge-based businesses like data services and consulting. Those decliners included Gartner (IT), FactSet (FDS) and Verisk Analytics (VRSK).

Airlines Take Off

Airlines, on the other hand, had their best week in almost four years. Solar energy, homebuilders and banks also jumped.

Consumer staples, industrials, materials and energy were the top-performing sectors and closed at new all-time highs. (Technology, in contrast, hasn’t made a new weekly closing high since October.)

Some of the biggest gainers were still members of technology. However, they were smaller and lesser-known companies like Teradyne (TER) and Corning (GLW). Cisco Systems (CSCO) also established a new record closing high for the first time since March 2000 — the peak of the dot-com bubble.

Overall, the moves seemed to confirm a broader shift away from “long-duration” growth stocks toward providers of tangible goods and services. It may even represent the end of an investing philosophy that’s dominated for much of the last decade.

DaVita (DVA) had its biggest weekly gain since 2000 after earnings and revenue beat estimates. The dialysis provider said Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) programs turned profitable for the first time.

Tapestry (TPR) broke out to a new all-time high and had its biggest weekly gain since 2020 after Coach drove strong quarterly results. Hershey (HSY) had the biggest gain in more than two decades after beating estimates.

Walmart (WMT) also jumped 10 percent and achieved $1 trillion of market capitalization for the first time. It’s helped drive the recent surge in consumer staples.

PayPal Punished

Quarterly reports prompted downside moves as well, triggering record weekly declines in Molina Healthcare (MOH) and PayPal (PYPL).

The economic news mostly reflected a weak labor market. Initial jobless claims rose more than expected, while layoffs, job openings and ADP’s private-sector payrolls report surprised to the downside.

January’s monthly employment report was delayed to this Wednesday because of a brief government shutdown.

Manufacturing and service-sector reports from the Institute for Supply Management were higher than expected. Consumer sentiment beat estimates.

Last week also saw President Trump slash tariffs against India as part of a trade deal with the Asian country.

Charting the Market

Last week’s gains were unusually broad, with two-thirds of the S&P 500’s members rising despite the broader index barely moving. That highlights the rotation away from large growth stocks toward most other companies.

The S&P 500 held the same 6,800 price zone where it bounced in late January. It also tested its 100-day moving average for the first time since May and remained above its 50-day MA. Those patterns may confirm a longer-term uptrend remains in effect.

The advance/decline (A/D) line hit a new all-time high amid broad participation to the upside.

Given their weighting in large growth companies, the S&P 500 (and Nasdaq-100) have lagged other indexes for the last six months. They’re now underperforming the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the Russell 2000 small cap index, the S&P 400 midcap index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. They’re also behind global benchmarks.

During this process of long-term rotation, some chart watchers may expect the S&P 500 to make relatively small moves. Traders may believe risk appetite will remain in effect as long as 6,800 holds — even if buyers focus on other indexes.

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indictors.

The Week Ahead

This week brings more earnings and some important economic news.

Federal Reserve policymakers Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller speak today. Both have typically favored lower interest rates. On Semiconductor (ON) and Amkor (AMKR) issue results in the afternoon.

Tomorrow brings retail sales for December (delayed by the government shutdown). The employment cost index is also due, along with speeches by Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack of the Fed. Coca-Cola (KO) reports in the morning, followed by Ford Motor (F) and Robinhood (HOOD) after the closing bell.

Wednesday features January’s non-farm payrolls report (moved from last Friday). Crude-oil inventories are also on the agenda, along with earnings from CSCO.

Initial jobless claims are on Thursday morning. Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET) and Coinbase (COIN) are some of the noteworthy companies due in the afternoon.

January’s consumer price index — a potentially important number — is on Friday morning.