Market Insights

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Next presentation: State of the Market on Monday, 9/22. (See Events page for more.)

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 holds 1-week low above 6,550
• Holds 8-day EMA, MACD rising again
• Intermarket: USD, yields, VIX showing little stress
• NDX breadth improves: Most members above 20-day MA since August 29, even as index slides
• “Growth sectors” outperforming in September: Communications, consumer discretionary, technology
  • Flashback: value period began in August before Fed

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

News & Views

• Growth positives continue:
  • LYFT rallies on Waymo collaboration
  • WDAY rallies on Elliott stake
  • Chinese growth stocks surge: BIDU BABA NTES
    • PDD clears $133 after strong earnings
  • Crypto stocks climbing: HUT GLXY BITF
  • Quantum computing rally: RGTI IONQ
    • Sovereign “arms race?”
  • TSLA holds range breakout
  • NFLX: Stabilizes five weeks before earnings
  • RDDT climbing on AI driver
  • ORCL gains exposure to TikTok
  • Chip-equipment breakouts: LRCX KLAC
  • Fiber optics: Raymond James sees upside in COHR LITE AAOI
  • JMIA: RBC Capital Markets raises African e-commerce price target from $6.50 to $15
  • Is a “new future” taking shape?
• Fed cuts 25bp, another 50bp expected this year
  • Is the Fed less of a catalyst going forward?
• Inflation:
  • CNBC survey: Political pressure on Fed seen causing higher inflation
  • BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: Investors worry about inflation, Fed independence
  • Greg Daco of EY: Retail sales rose just 0.2% adjusted for inflation (vs +0.6% headline)
  • CBO Director Phillip Swagel: Tariffs are lifting inflation
  • But, FactSet: Fewest companies cite “inflation” in five years
• Jonathon Golub (formerly of Credit Suisse, RBC): Strong earnings to lift S&P 500 another 10 percent
• Energy:
  • GS: China to stockpile crude oil through late 2026 (500K/day)
  • EIA crude-oil inventories -9.3mln vs +1.4mln estimate
  • Reuters sees drone attacks slowing Russian oil output

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: LEN FDX
• Tue 9/23: MU
• Wed 9/24: Crude oil inventories
• Thu 9/25: Initial jobless claims, durable goods