Market Insights

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 7/28.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 makes new high above 6,350
• RSI “cooking” in overbought territory
• Prices hold rising 8-day EMA
• 9-day ROC remains steadily positive
• Breadth:
  • Most new 52-week highs since March 4
  • A/D line new high
• Intermarket:
  • VIX makes new 5-month low under 15.5.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select patterns and indictors.

AI Boom Widens

• BKR goes beyond oil as datacenters power natgas demand
• GEV hits new record as datacenters boost electricity demand
• PJM (grid operator) shows electricity prices +22% y/y amid AI demand
• TEL: AI boosts cable/connector demand
• NEE beats on data center demand
• PEGA hits 3-year high as AI drives earnings, revenue beat
• GOOGL increases AI capex plans $75bln → $85bln

Patterns and Trends

• Value stocks move ahead of growth as breadth widens
  • Airlines, homebuilders, retailers outperform in last week
  • Health care bounces
• Equal-weighted index outperforming market cap-weighted in the last week
• China’s Hang Seng at highest level since November 2021
• Utilities hold breakout above November high
• EAFE Global index hits new all-time high above 2007 peak
• W potential short squeeze
• GS consolidates above 21-day EMA
• MU holds January high

News & Views

• Meme-stock activity appears in DNUT, KSS, GPRO, BYND, OPEN
• DHI, PHM: Results, buybacks lift homebuilders
• LII shows ongoing HVAC trend
• TXN falls on automotive market
  • Is all the bad news priced in?
• HLT sees improving demand into Q4
  • Flashback: DAL had similar news on 7/10
• CX rises: BofA sees lower cost of capital
  • Is it time to seek value in stocks with EV above market cap?
  • See MT Main → fundamentals → EV/MktCap
• Ryan Detrick of Carson: S&P 500’s 60-day run above 20-day MA is consistent with returns of 20-26% in the following years
  • Similar to tight ranges cited last week

Upcoming Events

Note: More than 1/3 of the S&P 500 reports earnings next week.

• Earnings after the close: INTC DECK
• Fri 7/25: Durable goods orders
  • Earnings: CNC HCA
• Mon 7/28:
• Tue 7/29: Consumer confidence, JOLTs
  • Premarket: BA MTK PYPL UNH UPS PG
  • Postmarket: STX V SBUX
• Wed 7/30: ADP payrolls, *GDP*, crude-oil inventories *Fed Meeting*
  • Premarket: HUM ETSY TEVA
  • Postmarket: *META* *MSFT* F LRCX WDC HOOD QCOM
• Thu 7/31: Jobless claims, *PCE inflation*, personal income/spending
  • Earnings: CMCSA ABBV MA RBLX

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Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.