Market Insights

Metals like gold and silver have rallied this year as investors shift away from the U.S. dollar. Today we’ll explore the trade, which could be especially active around today’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Gold futures (@GC) have climbed 25 percent this year — about 10 times the gain of the S&P 500 index. The move started with a rebound following a pullback in late 2024. It turned into a breakout by February as President Trump’s tariffs disrupted markets and raised questions about the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset.

Platinum futures (@PL) started moving in late May on signs of rising Chinese demand. The industry also predicted supply will drop to a five-year low because of falling production.

Silver futures (@SI) followed in early June as weak economic data weighed on the U.S. dollar. The white metal is now back to its highest levels since early 2013, having bounced at an earlier peak from October. Some chart watchers may view that as a bullish pattern because old resistance became new support.

Today’s Fed meeting could impact all three metals because of their sensitivity to interest rates and the U.S. dollar. While the central bank is expected to leave policy unchanged, officials will release key projections for this year and next. Their outlook for interest rates, known as the “dot plot,” is typically the most important part of the report. Other key items include their estimates of inflation, economic growth and unemployment.

The initial documents are due at 2 p.m. ET. Chairman Jerome Powell will speak about 30 minutes later.

Indications the Fed is willing to cut interest rates later this year may be a positive for metals prices. A more hawkish tone could be bearish.

Gold futures (@GC), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Long-Term Trends?

Even if metals decline on the news, some investors may see reasons to think they’re in a longer-term uptrend.

First is accumulation of bullion by global central banks. The World Gold Council (an industry group of mining companies) said central banks have amassed more than 1,000 tons of gold in each of the last three years, more than double the rate over the previous decade. The council also noted that a growing percentage of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years. Separately, the European Central Bank reported that gold replaced the euro as the No. 2 reserve asset in 2024.

Second is waning popularity of the main reserve asset: the U.S. dollar. The same ECB report noted that the greenback accounted for over 55 percent of central bank reserves in 2018, but was down to 46.5 percent last year. The U.S. currency may have slipped even more in 2025 because of President Trump’s tariff increases.

That brings us to the third positive catalyst for gold: policy decisions by leaders in Washington. Tariffs had a big impact because they’re intended to reduce trade, which in turn reduces the need for U.S. dollars. Another issue is the declining American creditworthiness because of growing fiscal deficits. Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its top Aaa rating on May 16, following similar moves by S&P and Fitch.

Those three positives mostly impact gold and have lifted the yellow metal since roughly 2022. Silver and platinum have lagged because they have more industrial use and are less held by central banks. As a result, silver and platinum may appear inexpensive relative to gold.

For example, TradeStation data shows an ounce of silver trading for about 0.11 times an ounce of gold. That’s down from a ratio of about 0.16 times a decade ago. The change in platinum, once more expensive than gold, has been even more dramatic. Its ratio versus gold has declined from more than 1 to less than 0.4.

Does that relative weakness make silver and platinum more appealing to investors holding metals as stores of value?

Silver futures (@SI), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Metal Futures

Investors expecting moves in gold, silver or platinum may consider using CME’s futures on the metals. Futures are securities that track indexes like commodity prices or stock indexes. Traders take long or short positions and profit (or lose money) as prices move. Unlike stocks, futures trade mostly around the clock. That lets orders get filled overnight, which can be important for global assets like commodities.

Metals futures have physical settlement, meaning traders risk being forced to take (or deliver) physical metal if they’re long or short near expiration. Like most retail brokerages, TradeStation normally closes such positions beforehand to prevent delivery. Customers should understand the rules and specifications before trading futures.

The table below lists key points about metals futures. It includes the industrial metal copper, which is more sensitive to economic growth — especially in China. Traders expecting a strong global economy may look for upside in copper, or position for declines if they expect a recession.

Futures trading is not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the futures risk disclosure statement visit Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureMargin.