Market Insights

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 5/19.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 sitting at 5860-5994 price range from February 27 – March 3.
• March 25 peak of 5787 is potentially in play
• Intermarket:
  • 10-year Treasury ended yesterday above 4.5% for 1st time since late-February
• Longer-term catalysts:
  • 5/28: Fed minutes, NVDA earnings

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Health Care Collapses

• S&P Select Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV) has lagged the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points in the last 10 sessions.
  • That’s the biggest underperformance since XLV launched in December 1998.
• Major YTD decliners:
  • MRNA: Guidance cut as vaccine demand weakens, FDA appoints Prasad
  • UNH: Increased patient usage, CEO departure highlight difficult future
    • UNH in midst of biggest monthly drop since 2009
  • MRK: Gardasil (another vaccine) demand weakens
  • TMO: Insiders selling as earnings beat
• Potential ongoing risks:
  • Medicaid cuts
  • Medicare reimbursements
  • Prescription-drug pricing

S&P Select Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

News & Views

• AI stocks gain on multiple catalysts
  • NVDA, AMD providing technology for Saudi AI company Humain
  • AMD announces $6bln share buyback
  • SMCI secures $20bln project with Saudi datacenter company DataVolt
    • A big step for “sovereign” enterprise market?
  • CRWV beats estimates in first report as public company
• Solar stocks jump as GOP budget proposal leaves clean-energy credits
• BofA: Gold has been most crowded trade for two months
• Goldman Sachs cuts recession odds from 45% to 35% after trade-war calms
  • S&P 500 target: 5,900 → 6,100
• COIN added to S&P 500 index
• Court of International Trade judges cast potential doubt on Trump tariffs.
  • Another hearing next week. Ruling possible in coming weeks.

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: AMAT CAVA TTWO
• Fri 5/16: Housing starts / building permits, consumer sentiment
• Tue 5/20:
  • Earnings: HD | PANW
• Wed 5/21: EIA crude oil inventories
• Thu 5/22: Jobless claims

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Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.