May 15, 2025

Health Care's Historic Collapse

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 5/19.

Sizing Up the Market

S&P 500 sitting at 5860-5994 price range from February 27 – March 3.
March 25 peak of 5787 is potentially in play
Intermarket:
- 10-year Treasury ended yesterday above 4.5% for 1st time since late-February

Longer-term catalysts:

5/28: Fed minutes, NVDA earnings

*S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.*

Health Care Collapses

S&P Select Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV) has lagged the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points in the last 10 sessions.
- That’s the biggest underperformance since XLV launched in December 1998.

Major YTD decliners:

MRNA: Guidance cut as vaccine demand weakens, FDA appoints Prasad
UNH: Increased patient usage, CEO departure highlight difficult future
- UNH in midst of biggest monthly drop since 2009

MRK: Gardasil (another vaccine) demand weakens

TMO: Insiders selling as earnings beat

Potential ongoing risks:

Medicaid cuts
Medicare reimbursements
Prescription-drug pricing

*S&P Select Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.*

News & Views

AI stocks gain on multiple catalysts
- NVDA, AMD providing technology for Saudi AI company Humain
- AMD announces $6bln share buyback
- SMCI secures $20bln project with Saudi datacenter company DataVolt
  - A big step for “sovereign” enterprise market?

CRWV beats estimates in first report as public company

Solar stocks jump as GOP budget proposal leaves clean-energy credits

BofA: Gold has been most crowded trade for two months

Goldman Sachs cuts recession odds from 45% to 35% after trade-war calms

S&P 500 target: 5,900 → 6,100

COIN added to S&P 500 index

Court of International Trade judges cast potential doubt on Trump tariffs.

Another hearing next week. Ruling possible in coming weeks.

Upcoming Events

Earnings tonight: AMAT CAVA TTWO
Fri 5/16: Housing starts / building permits, consumer sentiment
Tue 5/20:
- Earnings: HD | PANW

Wed 5/21: EIA crude oil inventories

Thu 5/22: Jobless claims

**Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above**
ETF	1 Year	5 Years	10 Years
S&P Select Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV)	+0.1%	+40.85%	+98.1%
As of April 30, 2025. Based on TradeStation Data

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.