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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 9/23.
Tickets for the Crossroads Summit 2024 can be accessed here.
Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 flirts with new highs
- 9-day rate of change positive again
- Above most moving averages
- Holding weekly low of 5604
- Next potential support at 5560
- Potential “bullish triangle” with higher low in September versus August.
Key News
- Powell pivots from inflation to jobs:
- July: “We are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal in support of a strong economy that benefits everyone.”
- September: “We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.”
- Inflation moves from first to second place. (Underlines added.)
- Fed raises unemployment projection from 4% in June to 4.4%
- Dot plot suggests 50bp more of cuts in 2024
- Economic data surprising to upside:
- Retail sales beat estimates for 3rd straight month, boosted by autos
- Housing starts, building permits beat as single family accelerates
- Rail traffic +6.8%, continuing recent strength
- Consumer sentiment inches higher
- Bank of America: Fund managers are “nervous bulls” as utilities outperform.
Upcoming Events
- Wed 9/25: New home sales, crude oil inventories
- Post market earnings: MU
- Thu 9/26: Powell speech, jobless claims claims
