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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 holds 50% of March 15-22 weekly move, March 8 high
  • Trio of key patterns remain:
    • Holds rising 21-day EMA
    • RSI above 50
    • Rate of change (9-day) mostly positive
  • Intermarket (yields and forex):
    • 10-year Treasury yield potentially stuck near 4.32
    • U.S. dollar index may have peaked at 105, potentially bullish for risk assets
  • Calendar is potentially favorable into earnings season, with time before key inflation and “non-live” Fed meeting on 5/1
S&P 500 with select indicators and patterns. Notice how the 50 percent retracement corresponds with the high of March 8.

Key News

  • March ISM manufacturing unexpectedly rises above 50 for 1st time since late 2022 as new orders increase.
    • Prices accelerate. Good for margins?
  • China Caixin: Chinese factory activity hits 13-month high in March
  • ADP payrolls +184K vs +148K estimate in March, 1st monthly beat since December. February revised +15K
  • Spotify (SPOT) raises prices, plans audio books (margin, business transformation)
  • Taiwan earthquake has limited impact on chip production
  • Jerome Powell still waiting for confirmation before cutting rates. “Too soon to say” if recent inflation uptick will last.
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for first-quarter economic growth.

Mover of the Week: Suncor Energy

  • Oil-sands producer clears November 2022 high as oil rallies
  • Emerging from 18-month consolidation period
  • Management plans cost cuts to widen margins as production increases
  • SU +20% YTD

Signals Scan

  • Applied Materials (AMAT) pulls back to 21-day EMA
  • Nvidia (NVDA) near 21-day EMA
  • Draftkings (DKNG) pulls back to 21-day EMA
  • International Business Machines (IBM) holds near 50-day MA
  • Gap (GPS): potential bull flag forming
  • Universal Health Services (UHS): pulls back from new high
  • Walmart (WMT) pulling back from new high
  • Synchrony Financial (SYF): potential bull flag

Upcoming Events

  • Fri 4/5: Nonfarm payrolls
  • Wed 4/10: *CPI*, Fed minutes, DAL earnings
  • Thu 4/11: PPI, jobless claims
  • Fri 4/12: Earnings season kickoff: JPM, C, WFC

Using the Platform

  • Bars since X% move custom indicator counts how many bars since prices rose/fell by a certain threshold.
    • EasyLanguage: “CurrentBar” is the price bar numbered from oldest to most recent
    • EasyLanguage: Close[0] = last price of current bar viewed by indicator
    • EasyLanguage: Close[1] = last price of preceding bar

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Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

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David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.