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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 holds 50% of March 15-22 weekly move, March 8 high
- Trio of key patterns remain:
- Holds rising 21-day EMA
- RSI above 50
- Rate of change (9-day) mostly positive
- Intermarket (yields and forex):
- 10-year Treasury yield potentially stuck near 4.32
- U.S. dollar index may have peaked at 105, potentially bullish for risk assets
- Calendar is potentially favorable into earnings season, with time before key inflation and “non-live” Fed meeting on 5/1
Key News
- March ISM manufacturing unexpectedly rises above 50 for 1st time since late 2022 as new orders increase.
- Prices accelerate. Good for margins?
- China Caixin: Chinese factory activity hits 13-month high in March
- ADP payrolls +184K vs +148K estimate in March, 1st monthly beat since December. February revised +15K
- Spotify (SPOT) raises prices, plans audio books (margin, business transformation)
- Taiwan earthquake has limited impact on chip production
- Jerome Powell still waiting for confirmation before cutting rates. “Too soon to say” if recent inflation uptick will last.
Mover of the Week: Suncor Energy
- Oil-sands producer clears November 2022 high as oil rallies
- Emerging from 18-month consolidation period
- Management plans cost cuts to widen margins as production increases
- SU +20% YTD
Signals Scan
- Applied Materials (AMAT) pulls back to 21-day EMA
- Nvidia (NVDA) near 21-day EMA
- Draftkings (DKNG) pulls back to 21-day EMA
- International Business Machines (IBM) holds near 50-day MA
- Gap (GPS): potential bull flag forming
- Universal Health Services (UHS): pulls back from new high
- Walmart (WMT) pulling back from new high
- Synchrony Financial (SYF): potential bull flag
Upcoming Events
- Fri 4/5: Nonfarm payrolls
- Wed 4/10: *CPI*, Fed minutes, DAL earnings
- Thu 4/11: PPI, jobless claims
- Fri 4/12: Earnings season kickoff: JPM, C, WFC
Using the Platform
- Bars since X% move custom indicator counts how many bars since prices rose/fell by a certain threshold.
- EasyLanguage: “CurrentBar” is the price bar numbered from oldest to most recent
- EasyLanguage: Close[0] = last price of current bar viewed by indicator
- EasyLanguage: Close[1] = last price of preceding bar
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