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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 in neutral range before the Fed
  • Bias may be to upside given:
    • 50% retracement of move from 8/18 through 9/1
    • More index members above 20-day MA than above 50-day MA
    • Faster MAs mostly above slower MAs
    • Sentiment measures show falling bearishness, increased neutrality
    • Earnings estimates rising on S&P 500 for first time in 2 years: FactSet
  • Risks:
    • Historically low VIX
    • Treasury yields near multiyear highs
  • Potential support at 4444: 8/11 low near June high
  • Potential resistance at 4528: Low from 7/20 and 7/27
  • Potential resistance at falling trendline
  • Long term: Stocks holding above August 2022 high in June and August
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators and patterns.

Sector Watch

  • Energy leading over most intermediate time frames, now positive on year
  • Precious metals gaining in last month
  • Software makers gaining versus semiconductors
    • Cybersecurity leading
  • Financials gaining after “Golden Cross”
  • Safe havens lag:
    • Consumer staples
    • Health care
    • Utilities still lag on YTD basis, but are rebounding before the Fed.

Key News

  • NAHB homebuilder sentiment falls again as mortgage rates overwhelm house shortage
  • Apple (AAPL) bull Dan Ives of Wedbush: iPhone 15 demand “strong out of the gates.”
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) planning AI tool for financial advisers to reports and documents
  • IEA sees “significant supply shortfall” in crude oil following latest OPEC+ cuts

Upcoming Events

  • Wednesday (9/20): Oil inventories, Fed meeting w/Dot Plot
    • Earnings: GIS (premarket), FDX (postmarket)
  • Thursday (9/21): Jobless claims
  • Tuesday (9/26): Consumer confidence
  • Early October (date N/A): Tesla (TSLA) deliveries

Using the Platform

Backtesting strategies 

Starting on TradeStation’s Chart Analysis:

  • Studies 🠢 Add Strategies…
    • Select from large number of prebuilt long/short strategies using RSI, Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR and more
    • Ensure strategies are turned on, including entries and exits
  • Data 🠢 Strategy Performance Report to analyze
  • Studies 🠢 Edit Strategies…
    • Click on individual strategies to change settings and to optimize

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+13.86%+55.13%+175.19%
As of Aug. 31, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

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