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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 holds 4450 area
- Near June peak and August 15 breakdown level
- Holds 50% retracement of 8/25 – 9/1 rally
- Potential resistance at 4528 (bottom of July 27 outside candle)
- Earnings estimates rising on S&P 500 for first time in 2 years: FactSet
- MACD rising
- S&P 500 members above 20-day MA now exceed number above 50-day MA
- Energy top performing sector in the past month
- Technology has also outperformed. All other sectors have lagged the S&P 500
- Cannabis stocks rally as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) looks to ease restrictions.
- Consumer staples and traditional media lag.
- Risk of bearish window dressing into yearend?
- New York Times (NYT) bucks the weak trend
- Oil jumps to 2023 high after OPEC+ extends cuts
- Airlines warn fuel costs may hurt profits: CNBC
- Cleveland Fed “Nowcast” sees August CPI +0.8%, September +0.4%
- ISM services surprise to upside as price gains accelerate
- Roku (ROKU) rallies on cost cuts after jumping on strong results
- Fedspeak: Waller (voter) & Collins (non-voter) “careful/cautious” but open to more hikes.
- S&P: U.S. corporates getting more efficient by cutting expenses
- Morgan Stanley: Healthcare spending on AI/machine learning to rise 10.5% in 2023 vs 5.5% in 2022.
- Reuters: Growing pessimism toward consumers as savings deplete
Mover of the Week: Dell Technologies
- Earnings, revenue beat estimates on 8/31
- AI “long-term tailwind,” according to CEO COO Jeff Clarke
- DELL +75% YTD
- Monday (9/11): Oracle (ORCL) earnings
- Tuesday (9/12): Apple product event
- Wednesday (9/13): CPI, Potential ARM IPO (unconfirmed)
- Thursday (9/14): Retail sales, jobless claims
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above
|ETF||1 Year||5 Years||10 Years|
|SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)||+13.86%||+55.13%||+175.19%|
As of Aug. 31, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.