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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 holds 4450 area
    • Near June peak and August 15 breakdown level
    • Holds 50% retracement of 8/25 – 9/1 rally
  • Potential resistance at 4528 (bottom of July 27 outside candle)
  • Earnings estimates rising on S&P 500 for first time in 2 years: FactSet
  • MACD rising
  • S&P 500 members above 20-day MA now exceed number above 50-day MA
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators and patterns.

Sector Watch

  • Energy top performing sector in the past month
  • Technology has also outperformed. All other sectors have lagged the S&P 500
  • Cannabis stocks rally as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) looks to ease restrictions.
  • Consumer staples and traditional media lag.

Key News

  • Oil jumps to 2023 high after OPEC+ extends cuts
  • Airlines warn fuel costs may hurt profits: CNBC
  • Cleveland Fed “Nowcast” sees August CPI +0.8%, September +0.4%
  • ISM services surprise to upside as price gains accelerate
  • Roku (ROKU) rallies on cost cuts after jumping on strong results
  • Fedspeak: Waller (voter) & Collins (non-voter) “careful/cautious” but open to more hikes.
  • S&P: U.S. corporates getting more efficient by cutting expenses
  • Morgan Stanley: Healthcare spending on AI/machine learning to rise 10.5% in 2023 vs 5.5% in 2022.
  • Reuters: Growing pessimism toward consumers as savings deplete

Mover of the Week: Dell Technologies

  • Earnings, revenue beat estimates on 8/31
  • AI “long-term tailwind,” according to CEO COO Jeff Clarke
  • DELL +75% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • Monday (9/11): Oracle (ORCL) earnings
  • Tuesday (9/12): Apple product event
  • Wednesday (9/13): CPI, Potential ARM IPO (unconfirmed)
  • Thursday (9/14): Retail sales, jobless claims

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+13.86%+55.13%+175.19%

As of Aug. 31, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

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