Don’s Notebook July 16, 2018


President Trump and Russian Leader Vladimir Putin began their Helsinki Summit this morning.

The good news on the economy keeps rushing in, even during our global trade war. Watching tariff actions and counter actions may be unsettling to some so try to focus attention on the concrete and the immediate: where the economy stands right now.

In last Friday’s semi-annual monetary policy report, the Fed said consumer spending rebounded in the spring in what perhaps hints at a strong June in today’s retail sales data.

The June retail sales report:

  • Total sales rose an as-expected 0.5 percent in June with May, in what will be another positive for second-quarter GDP, revised a sharp 5 tenths higher to an outsized 1.3 percent jump.
  • Strong gains for the discretionary categories of autos and restaurants and a big upward revision to May highlight this morning’s report

The New York Fed released the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July:

  • The number came in very strong and right at expectations, at 22.6 in July.

Notable Earnings today: Bank of America, BlackRock, Luby’s and Netflix. begins their biggest shopping day of the year -Amazon Prime Day – at 3pm EDT.

The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook.

China released its Q2 GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports today and could be signaling lower growth.

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