Market Insights

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Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 holds 10/29 close of 6,980
• Holds 21-day EMA
• Moving averages may reflect trend resumption, acceleration from consolidation
• 9-day rate of change stays positive
• Intermarket conditions:
  • 10-year Treasury yields stay below 4.25
  • VIX stays below 20

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indictors.

The End of ‘Growth?’

• 2/3 of S&P 500 members up in 2026
  • GOOGL, AMZN are only megacap growth stocks positive on year
• Software -5% this month after 9.9% drop in November (biggest monthly drop since April 2022 as bear market took hold).
• Communications index last made record high in Q3
• Noteworthy stocks without 52-week highs in the last 3 months:
  • MSFT META NFLX APP INTU ADBE FTNT ADSK PYPL WDAY
• Software and Communications are both lagging the S&P 500 in the last five years
• Software and Communications are classic “secular” (non-cyclical) growth groups.
  • High-multiple companies, especially those tied to subscription revenue model
  • Subscription model has quietly been a backbone of tech stocks since ADBE adoption in 2012

Upcoming Events

• Fri 1/16: NAHB housing index.
  • Earnings: STT PNC
• Mon 1/19: MLK day: Markets Closed
• Tue 1/20:
  • Earnings: MMM DHI | NFLX UAL
• Wed 1/21: Housing starts, Lisa Cook hearing in Supreme Court
  • Earnings: JNJ HAL
• Thu 1/22: Jobless claims, crude-oil inventories
  • Earnings: GE FCX PG