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Market Trends | Stocks
Is More Weakness Coming in the U.S. Dollar?
David Russell
August 7, 2025

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 8/11.

Sizing Up the Market

  • S&P 500 holds 21-day EMA
  • 9-day ROC remains steadily positive
  • Prices above 6320 (50% retracement of recent decline) give non-confirmation of bearish move
  • Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Friday hit lowest level since late April
  • Intermarket:

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

News & Views

  • Treasury yields jump after weak 10-year auction
  • Zandi: Economy on “precipice of recession” amid weak consumer spending, construction and manufacturing.
  • Euro zone June retail sales +3.1% vs +0.6% in U.S.
    • More upside in global?
  • UBS: Expects more U.S. dollar weakness into year end
  • Investing.com: Foreign passive funds increase Chinese stock buying
  • Morgan Stanley Wealth Management economist Ellen Zentner: July CPI (8/12) may show tariff inflation
  • Bank of America: No recession, no rate cuts in 2025

Potential Chart Patterns

  • TSLA: Triangle w/ breakout potential
  • AAPL: Approaches potential range breakout
  • GOOGL: Consolidates below January highs
  • AEO: Continued higher on 8/6 after holding 50% of 8/4 rally
  • VRT: Consolidaes below January peak
  • Energy stocks: Risk of channel breakdown
  • BTM: Consolidates following sharp rally

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  • Earnings this afternoon: TTD GILD MCHP MP
  • Tue 8/12: *CPI*
  • Wed 8/13: Crude oil inventories
    • Earnings (PM): CSCO
  • Thu 8/14: PPI, initial jobless claims
    • Earnings (AM): DE JD
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About the author

David Russell
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on more than two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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