Deals and Doves This Summer?

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 7/14.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 holds last week’s range as volatility wanes
• 50-day MA rising at fastest pace since June 2020
• Sector mix potentially bullish:
  • 2-week leaders: Materials, technology, energy, industrials (cyclicals)
  • 2-week laggards: Real estate, consumer staples, utilities, healthcare (safe havens)

• VIX lowest close since 2/20
• U.S. dollar index still under mid-June low
• 10-year yield potentially peaks under 4.5%

Dealmaking Returns?

• FastBull citing Bloomberg: M&A up 20% yoy in 1H
• OpenAI buys Jony Ive’s io Products for $6.5bln
• GOOGL buys Wiz for $32bln (cloud security)
• MRK buys VRNA fror $10bln
• WSJ: Ferrero eyes KLG for $3bln
• Regional banks, small caps, biotechs outperform in last 2 weeks.

Dovish Shift Coming?

• Fed minutes remain ambiguously dovish
• CME FedWatch shows September odds potentially solidifying
• Potentially supporting data:
  • China deflation: June PPI -3.6% vs -3.2% estimate
  • Oil struggles on OPEC+ production growth
  • June employment report: Wages +0.2% vs +0.3% estimate

• Homebuilders outperforming in July after weak 1H
  • Key stocks: DHI LEN PHM HD LOW TOL BLDR ZG OPAD OPEN

Using the Platform: Earnings

• RadarScreen®: Studies → Add Study… → Next Earnings Date RS
  • Add symbols: Data → Add Symbol List → S&P 500

• Customize Indicator inputs options:
  • ChangeTextColorNumDays: days for highlighting
  • TextPercentFromRight: 100 = far left of window
  • TextPercentFromBottom: 100 = top of window

Upcoming Events

• Tue 7/15: *CPI*
  • Earnings: JPM C WFC

• Earnings: BAC GS JNJ MS

• Earnings: PEP