Market Insights

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 6/9.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P in range:
  • 5,994: 2/27 high
  • 5,773: January low
• Prices holding rising 8-day EMA
• 9-day rate of change (ROC) turns higher again after pause
• Intermarket:
  • Treasury yields retreat after weak ADP payrolls data
  • U.S. dollar index near April’s 3-year low

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Bullish Sector Mix?

• Low volatility, low correlation / “stock picker’s market” (See below)
• Industrials: First sector to hit new 52-week highs post-trade war
• Precious metals AND industrial metals both outperform in the last 1-2 weeks
• Semiconductors outperform in the last 1-2 weeks
• Biotechs potentially break downtrend
• Global stocks outperforming
  • See our special report on ADRs from 3/6, including custom workspace.
• 2-week laggards: Utilities, energy, financials, healthcare, consumer discretionary

News & Views

• S&P 500 price targets raised:
  • Barclays: 5,900 to 6,050
  • Deutsche Bank: 6,150 to 6,550
• Slowing Growth?
  • Continuing jobless claims for week ended 5/9 hit 1.919mln, the highest since November 2021
  • ADP private-sector payrolls +37K in May vs 115K estimate. 2nd lowest reading since June 2020.
  • Fed Beige Book: U.S. economy shrinks in last 6 weeks amid “lower labor demand, … declining hours.”
  • NY, Boston, Philadelphia report declining activity.
  • Overseas data:
    • China’s Caixin manufacturing misses estimates in May
    • Euro zone inflation +1.9% vs +2% estimate
    • May German unemployment higher than expected: 34K vs 12K estimate
  • Has Fed hawkishness peaked?
• Inflation inputs:
  • Redfin: Median rents -1% yoy in May
  • Oil drops after OPEC+ production increase, gasoline inventory build
• OilPrice.com: EIA sees “record supply and sliding demand.”
• Morgan Stanley: U.S. dollar to fall 9% in next year on expected Fed cuts
• CNBC: Private-equity firms turning bullish on Europe
• IATA cuts global air cargo forecast amid trade wars

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: *AVGO* LULU
• Fri 6/6: *Non-farm payrolls*
• Mon 6/9: AAPL WWDC begins (runs all week)
• Wed 6/11: *CPI*, crude-oil inventories
• Thu 6/12: PPI, jobless claims