The ‘Sell America' Trade Might Be Back
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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 6/9.
Sizing Up the Market
- S&P 500 drops after outside day, followed by inside day
- Stuck in potential range below record high
- 5971: Monday high near 12/27 weekly close
- 5786: 5/12 low, near 3/25 high
- VIX back above 20
- Treasury yields, gold climbing
- U.S. dollar index falling
S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.
‘Sell America’ Returns?
- Dollar index back to mid-April range
- Platinum (@PL) jumps as dollar-averse Chinese buyers seek alternate to gold
- Treasuries under pressure:
- 30-year yield reaches highest since October 2023
- 10-year yield reaches highest since February
- 20-year Treasury bonds price at 5.047%, up from 4.81% in April. Bid-to-cover ratio drops from 2.63x to 2.43x
- Japan faces similar challenge, with 20-year JGB yields reaching the highest since October 2000
News & Views
- UBS expects volatility as Wall Street demands confirmation of trade deals, worries about fiscal outlook.
- Jensen Huang: Chip export rules a “failure,” have cut NVDA’s Chinese market share from 95% to 50%
- Reuters: OPEC+ production hike intended to crush U.S. shale producers, regain U.S. market share.
- Musk refocuses on TSLA, commits to 5 more years as CEO
- Richard Bernstein, Jamie Dimon: Profit cycle peaking
- Dimon sees credit risk spreading
Upcoming Events
- Earnings tonight: DECK
- Mon 5/26: Memorial Day
- Tue 5/27: Durable goods
- Earnings: OKTA
- Earnings: **NVDA** CRM HPQ
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