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Market Trends | Markets
The ‘Sell America’ Trade Might Be Back
David Russell
May 22, 2025

Downloads are available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 6/9.

Sizing Up the Market

  • S&P 500 drops after outside day, followed by inside day
  • Stuck in potential range below record high
    • 5971: Monday high near 12/27 weekly close
    • 5786: 5/12 low, near 3/25 high
  • Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaks near overbought
  • For 1st time since 4/21, fewer index members are above 20-day MA than above 50-day MA.
  • For 1st time since 4/22, the index ended Wednesday below its 8-day EMA.
  • See our TradingView study of stocks vs. gold
  • Intermarket:
    • VIX back above 20
    • Treasury yields, gold climbing
    • U.S. dollar index falling

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

‘Sell America’ Returns?

  • Dollar index back to mid-April range
  • Platinum (@PL) jumps as dollar-averse Chinese buyers seek alternate to gold
  • Treasuries under pressure:
    • 30-year yield reaches highest since October 2023
    • 10-year yield reaches highest since February
    • 20-year Treasury bonds price at 5.047%, up from 4.81% in April. Bid-to-cover ratio drops from 2.63x to 2.43x
    • Japan faces similar challenge, with 20-year JGB yields reaching the highest since October 2000
  • ECB cites “regime change” as investors reassess safety of U.S. assets, which could have “potentially far-reaching consequences.”

News & Views

  • UBS expects volatility as Wall Street demands confirmation of trade deals, worries about fiscal outlook.
  • Jensen Huang: Chip export rules a “failure,” have cut NVDA’s Chinese market share from 95% to 50%
  • Reuters: OPEC+ production hike intended to crush U.S. shale producers, regain U.S. market share.
  • Musk refocuses on TSLA, commits to 5 more years as CEO
  • Richard Bernstein, Jamie Dimon: Profit cycle peaking
    • Dimon sees credit risk spreading

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  • Wed 5/28: FOMC minutes
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  • Thu 5/29: Revised GDP (w/PCE), jobless claims, crude-oil inventories
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About the author

David Russell
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on more than two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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