Market Insights

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 5/5.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 near levels from “Liberation Day” on 4/2
• Stochastics dipping from overbought
• 8-day EMA above 21-day EMA
• Potential catalysts for reversal or breakout:
  • 5/2: Payrolls
  • 5/7: Fed meeting
• Intermarket:
  • VIX potentially stabilizing above 20
  • Gold potentially stabilizing above 3,000

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

News & Views

• Q1 GDP shrinks 0.3% as imports surge, prices rise more than expected.
• S&P Global: S&P 500 full-year EPS estimates -1.8% since 3/31
• Chinese manufacturing PMI 49 vs 49.8 estimate
  • A weight on energy?
• April consumer confidence 86 vs 87.5 estimate. Worst expectations since October 2011.
• U.S. Treasury triples Q2 expected borrowing to $514bln
• China state broadcaster: U.S. contacting China through multiple channels in hope of trade deal
• Apollo’s Torsten Slok: Risk of job loss, 90% chance of recession amid shortages
• Data-center positives in megacap earnings:
  • MSFT: Azure revenue +33%, driven by AI.
  • META: Capex plans raised from $60-65bln to $64-72bln

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: *AAPL* *AMZN* ROKU AMGN
• Fri 5/2: Non-farm payrolls
  • Earnings: XOM CVX
• Mon 5/5: ISM services
• Tue 5/6: AMD earnings
• Wed 5/7: EIA crude oil inventories, *FOMC*
• Thu 5/8: Jobless claims