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Market Trends | Stocks
Attention May Shift to Nvidia’s AI Event, Fed Meeting
David Russell
March 13, 2025

Downloads are available here. ADR list is available here. TradeStation’s ideas on TradingView are available here.

Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 3/17.

Sizing Up the Market

  • S&P 500 stabilizes at 10 percent correction.
  • Prices fell 6.6 percent below the 50-day MA, biggest gap since October 2022.
  • Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) hits oversold for the first time since October 2023.
  • Potential price zone at 5733-5773.
  • Will downside continue with several days before the Federal Reserve meets?
  • VIX returns below December high.

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Nvidia, Fed Next Week

  • Nvidia GTC: March 17-21
    • Blackwell updates expected
    • Rubin unveiling? Thinner chip with better memory that will follow Blackwell
    • 1pm ET March 18: Jensen Huang Keynote
    • March 20: Quantum computing day
  • Fed meeting: Wednesday March 19 at 2 p.m. ET
    • Estimated rates (“dot plot), inflation, employment
    • Powell press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET

News & Views

  • Feb CPI +0.2 percent vs +0.3 percent estimate. Shelter continues to moderate.
  • Crude oil inventories +1.4mln vs +3.6mln estimate
  • Dan Niles: Lower revenue estimates, not tariffs, have hurt megacaps
  • Pimco: Tariffs have raised recession risk
  • Larry Summers: 50 percent chance of recession this year
  • Kostin of Goldman cuts S&P 500 target from 6500 to 6200
  • Goldman: Recent stock unwind reminiscent of covid
  • Airlines cut guidance as economy slows

Potential Turnarounds

  • VKTX: Biotech addresses major concern by finding a manufacturing partner for weight-loss compound (Phase 3 testing to start in Q2)
  • SFIX: Earnings, revenue beat for 2nd straight quarter amid turnaround talk.
  • ZI: Marketing software company beat estimates 2/25, received positive analysts notes ZI

Other Events to Watch

  • Tomorrow morning: Consumer sentiment, LI earnings
  • Mon 3/17: Retail sales, NAHB housing index
  • Tue 3/18: Housing starts / building permits
    • Earnings: XPEV
  • Wed: Crude oil, Fed meeting
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About the author

David Russell
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on more than two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.

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