Market Insights

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 3/3.

Sizing Up the Market

• S&P 500 crumbles under 21-day EMA, 50-day MA
• Short-term indicators turn negative: MACD, RSI, 9-day ROC, 8-day EMA under 21-day EMA
• Prices hit potential resistance around 6,000
• New 7-week low on Tuesday
• Falling yields, safe-haven outperformance imply spreading risk aversion

S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Tesla vs Chinese EVs

• TSLA loses $1 trillion market cap
• TSLA on pace for biggest monthly drop since January 2024 (-28% so far)
• TSLA is fourth-worst performing of S&P 500 in 2025
• TSLA automated driving software fails to impress
• TSLA: European sales -45% y/y in January
  • Meanwhile XPEV officially enters UK market (2/12)
• TSLA’s “products are pretty old at this point” versus Chinese models, BofA Securities analyst John Murphy told CNBC on Wednesday. “There’s a real issue with product cadence.”
• LI rallies on all-electric Li i8 announcement
  • (LI historically focused on hybrids)
  • Meanwhile TSLA has yet to reveal its new low-priced model.

XPeng (XPEV), daily chart with select patterns and indicators.

News & Views

• February data may suggest sharp slowing of activity:
  • Consumer confidence has biggest drop since August as expectations worsen
  • S&P Global PMI hits 17-month low, services contract for 1st time in 25 months
  • Consumer sentiment revised from 67.8  to 64.7 (lowest since Nov 2023) as inflation fears rise
  • Dallas Fed: new orders, outlook, capacity utilization drop as costs rise
• Other news, data potentially less positive for stocks:
  • January existing and new home sales miss estimates. Median new home prices +7.5% m/m.
  • Yield curve potentially sliding toward inversion
  • Liesman of CNBC: Fed officials stress no rate cuts until inflation slows more
  • Trump: Tariffs to proceed on Mexico, Canada, Europe
  • Questions about potential MSFT data center cutbacks
  • APP slides on short-seller reports
• Cautious comments:
  • Ron Insana: Might be time to sell the rallies
  • Slok of Apollo: Risk of mass layoffs
  • Bastek of HD: Higher rates hurting remodeling
  • Peter Morici of Univ of Maryland: Tariffs to boost inflation; no “golden age” coming
  • Gary Marcus of NYU: AI revenue isn’t there and might never arrive

Upcoming Events

• Earnings tonight: DELL HPQ SOUN SMR MNST
• Fri 2/28: PCE inflation, personal income/spending
• Mon 3/3: ISM manufacturing
• Tue 3/4: State of the Union (evening)
  • Earnings: TGT BBY | CRWD
• Wed 3/5: ADP payrolls, ISM services, crude-oil inventories
  • Earnings: MRVL MDB
• Thu 3/6: Jobless claims
  • Earnings: JD KR

Longer-term items to remember:

• Fri 3/7: Payrolls
• Wed 3/12: CPI
• 3/17 – 3/21: NVDA GTC AI conference
  • 3/20: First Quantum Day
• Wed 3/19: Fed + Dot plot