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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • Remains in tight uptrend with few bearish signals
  • Breadth widens: Advance / Decline line, new 52-week highs potentially confirm uptrend
  • Potential support around 5030
  • Stronger GDP, earnings outlooks supporting sentiment
  • Next big catalysts: Powell testimony (3/6), payrolls (3/8)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators.

Special Report

Key News

  • Barclays raises S&P 500 target from 4,800 to 5,300. Sees potential for 6,050.
  • Goldman Sachs: Bullish sentiment can widen as hedge funds add to momentum trades
  • Reuters: Credit spreads hit 2-year low in sign of economic confidence
  • Deutsche Bank: Buyback activity highest since May 2023
  • Potentially dovish news today:
    • January PCE inflation inline. Personal income +1% vs +0.4% estimate.
    • Initial jobless claims and continuing claims higher than expected.
  • EBay (EBAY) rallies on surprise volume gross merchandising volume (GMV) growth.
  • Vishops (VIPS) hits 2+ year high on strong results, margin Citi upgrade. Potential margin/turnaround story
  • Constellation Energy (CEG) hits record high on IRA support for nuclear energy.
  • Axon Energy (AXON) hits new record high on earnings, revenue beat
  • Micron Technology (MU) to supply memory for Nvidia (NVDA) AI processors
  • Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) doubles on strong phase 2 data for obesity drug
  • Q4 GDP revised down by 0.1 percent but consumer spending revised up
  • Alphabet (GOOGL) under pressure for AI struggles
  • Snowflake (SNOW) falls on weak guidance, CEO Slootman exit
  • Okta (OKTA) rallies on strong results, guidance
  • Best Buy (BBY) rallies on strong margins
  • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) falls on weak guidance

Sector Watch

  • Materials starting to outperform as cyclical theme spreads
  • Consumer discretionaries, financials, industrials strong
    • Construction-related strong: URI, PWR, FIX
  • Energy weak, decoupling from cyclical theme
  • Solar energy still lagging
  • Safe havens lag: Gold miners, consumer staples, health care
  • Biotech rallies after breaking weekly resistance
  • Traditional retailers climb before earnings: JWN, ANF, AEO, GPS
Retail money market fund balances, courtesy of St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Signals Scan

  • Ford Motor (F) holds 50-, 200-day MAs
  • Apple (AAPL) potentially at risk of breaking $180
  • Alphabet (GOOGL) breaks 50-day MA
  • MPLX (MPLX) pulls back to 21-day EMA

Mover of the Week: Packaging Corp.

  • Hit new record high on 1/25 after earnings, revenue beat
  • Correlated to economic activity
  • Management sees higher volumes, pricing
  • PKG +18% in past 6 months

Using the Platform

  • Inside Bar and Outside Bar are “ShowMe” studies available on Chart Analysis, Radar Screen and Scanner
  • Can be used with daily or weekly intervals
  • Displays the last price when event occurs
  • Scanner: Set to “true” or “false”

Upcoming Events

  • Fri 3/1: ISM manufacturing
  • Tues 3/5: ISM services
    • Earnings: NIO, TGT, CRWD
  • Wed 3/6: ADP private-sector payrolls, Powell in Congress
  • Thu 3/7: Jobless claims, Powell in Congress

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+18.80%+78.89%+171.01%
As of Jan. 31. Based on TradeStation Data.

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