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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 tries to hold support above September highs
  • Still at weekly resistance line
  • Candlestick patterns:
    • Bearish outside candle yesterday
    • Inside week forming
  • Nasdaq-100 tries to build support at summer highs
  • MACD turns negative
  • VIX holding 12
  • Potential downside risk with prices stuck at the top of the range and 4-5 days until catalyst (Fed meeting)
  • Recession fears may grow unless Fed signals Q1 rate cut
  • Number of index members above 20-day MA now under 50-day total
  • Potentially stalling at 10-day MA
  • Stochastics, RSI dipping from overbought conditions
  • Potential support at 4460 on a pullback (June monthly high, low on 11/14)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), with select indicators and patterns.

Key News

  • October factory orders -3.6% vs -2.6% estimate
  • Atlanta Fed’s GDP now falls to +1.3%, down from +2.2% in mid-November
    • Yield curve reinverting
  • Moody’s turns negative on China sovereign credit rating
  • October job openings (JOLTs) 8.73 million (lowest since March 2021) vs 9.3 million estimate
  • Oil inventories fall, but gasoline increases
  • ADP payrolls +103K vs +130K est. Wage slowdown continues
  • Q3 productivity revised up again, wage costs down again.
    • Productivity +5.7%, versus initial estimate of +4.2% on 11/2
    • Unit labor costs -1.2%, versus initial estimate of +0.7% on 11/2
  • Reuters: Low VIX boosting “gamma heavy” risk-on trades
  • Reuters: Oil traders doubt significant cuts by OPEC+
  • Walmart CEO McMillon: Wage pressures easing
  • Blackbook: Used car prices -2.4% last week, versus -1.8% the previous week.
    • Vehicles sitting 56 days (most in at least 4 years)
  • Tech layoffs: Twilio (TWLO), Spotify (SPOT) rally on cost cuts
S&P 500, weekly chart, showing select patterns and levels.

Sector Watch

  • Airlines rally on M&A, lower oil, lower rates
  • Biotechnology outperforms in last week
  • Banks, homebuilders, small caps strong
  • Nasdaq, large-cap growth stalls amid “everything else” rally
  • Energy continues to lag
  • Semiconductors lag
  • China lags

Mover of the Week: Pinterest

  • Social-media stock beat earnings, revenue estimates on 10/30
  • Positive analyst notes from New Street (11/27), Jefferies (11/30)
  • Optimism about turnaround plan, advertising deal with (AMZN)
  • PINS 38% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • Mon 12/11: ORCL earnings
  • Tue 12/12: CPI
  • Wed 12/13: PPI, Fed
    • Earnings: ABDE
  • Thu 12/14: Retail sales, jobless claims
    • Earnings: COST, LEN

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+11.95%+65.57%+152.22%
As of Nov. 30. Based on TradeStation Data.

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