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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 breaks support at 4444 after Fed meeting
- Two consecutive inside weeks break to the downside
- 50-day MA turns negative
- MACD turns bearish
- Downtrend potentially begins with another low on weekly chart
- August low of 4335 potentially in play
- Intermarket:
- 10-year Treasury yield inching above October high
- EURUSD breaks potential bearish flag
- VIX back above 15
Sector Watch
- Safe havens like utilities, consumer staples, health care outperforming slightly: potential risk off
- Semiconductors leading to downside in past week
- Energy starting to lag amid shooting-star in crude oil futures (@CL)
Signals Scan
- Palantir (PLTR) potential bearish flag after stalling under 50-day MA
- Microsoft (MSFT) may have downside continuation under 50-day MA
- UnitedHealth (UNH), Danaher (DHR): “Golden crosses” in health care
Key News
- Fed reduces planned rate cuts next year
- Ed Morse of Citi: Oil may peak amid refiner maintenance, coming supply from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Mexico
- Housing starts, builder sentiment weakens amid high rates.
- Savita Subramanian of BofA raises S&P 500 target to 4600
- Societe Generale: High rates hurting small companies more than largest companies (based on interest expense hitting income statements).
Upcoming Events
- Tuesday (9/26): Consumer confidence
- Wednesday (9/27): Durable goods, crude oil inventories
- Early October (date N/A): Tesla (TSLA) deliveries
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