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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 breaks support at 4444 after Fed meeting
  • Two consecutive inside weeks break to the downside
  • 50-day MA turns negative
  • MACD turns bearish
  • Downtrend potentially begins with another low on weekly chart
  • August low of 4335 potentially in play
  • Intermarket:
    • 10-year Treasury yield inching above October high
    • EURUSD breaks potential bearish flag
    • VIX back above 15
S&P 500, daily chart, with key patterns and indicators.

Sector Watch

  • Safe havens like utilities, consumer staples, health care outperforming slightly: potential risk off
  • Semiconductors leading to downside in past week
  • Energy starting to lag amid shooting-star in crude oil futures (@CL)

Signals Scan

  • Palantir (PLTR) potential bearish flag after stalling under 50-day MA
  • Microsoft (MSFT) may have downside continuation under 50-day MA
  • UnitedHealth (UNH), Danaher (DHR): “Golden crosses” in health care

Key News

  • Fed reduces planned rate cuts next year
  • Ed Morse of Citi: Oil may peak amid refiner maintenance, coming supply from Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Mexico
  • Housing starts, builder sentiment weakens amid high rates.
  • Savita Subramanian of BofA raises S&P 500 target to 4600
  • Societe Generale: High rates hurting small companies more than largest companies (based on interest expense hitting income statements).

Upcoming Events

  • Tuesday (9/26): Consumer confidence
  • Wednesday (9/27): Durable goods, crude oil inventories
  • Early October (date N/A): Tesla (TSLA) deliveries

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