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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 bounces after holding 50% retracement of June 26-30 weekly candle
  • Index has few apparent bearish signals as it approaches 4513
  • March 2022 high of 4637 may be in play
  • Advance/Decline Line makes a new high
  • Yield curve steepens as 2-year Treasury fails at 5%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with selected indicators.

Sector Watch

  • Weak-USD trades gain with Fed pause in sight: European stocks, gold, silver
  • Energy accelerates amid positive supply/demand balance. SLB/HAL leading
  • Regional banks rebound: ZION is top-performing S&P 500 member so far this quarter
  • Small caps, mid caps may be playing catchup as breadth widens
  • Lagging safe havens may reflect risk appetite.

Key News

  • CPI headline & core below expectations. Shelter, used car prices, transport reduce services inflation.
  • Non-farm payrolls miss estimates amid downward revisions
  • Microsoft/Activision ruling viewed as potential defeat for FTC’s merger-blocking efforts.
  • Citi downgrades U.S., upgrades Europe
  • Goolsbee of Fed sees “golden path” to lower inflation without a recession
  • Meta (META) gains on Threads optimism
  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN) jumps to No. 2 spot at TradeStation after deliveries ease production worries.
    • Like Tesla (TSLA) in October 2019?
  • UPS, AMZN, autos face potential labor issues
  • Tom Lee: Underinvested money managers may chase S&P 500 to new highs as recession worries fade.
  • FactSet: More companies issuing positive guidance and downward earnings revisions are smaller than average.
  • Rystad Energy flags 20% increase in “well interventions,” valued-added oil-field services.
  • Corn futures plunge as USDA boosts crop outlook.

Patterns & Signals

  • Silver futures (@SI) break falling trendline
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): triangle near 50-day MA
  • First Solar (FSLR) tries to reclaim 50-day MA
  • Shopify (SHOP): triangle near 50-day MA
  • Vishop (VIPS) bounces at 50-day MA as U.S. dollar weakens

Mover of the Week: Global-e Online

  • Global e-commerce service provider beat..
  • Consensus sees revenue +42% this year, +36% next year
  • GLBE +117% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (7/14): Consumer sentiment
    • Earnings: JPM, C, WFC, UNH
  • Monday (7/17): nothing important
  • Tuesday (7/18): Retail sales, industrial production, NAHB homebuilder sentiment
    • Earnings: BAC, MS, SCHW
  • Wednesday (7/19): Housing starts, building permits
    • Earnings: TSLA, NFLX, GS, UAL

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)+17.50%+63.40%+176.32%
As of June 30, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.

Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

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