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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 potentially overbought but few apparent reversal signals
- Bullish outside candle last week
- 10-day MA rising for 27 days, longest streak since February
- Potential resistance above 4500
- Potential support at 4400
- Index members above 20-day MA still exceed number above 50-day MA
- S&P 500 in midst of low-volatility drift, which potentially favors stock picking over index trades
Key News
- CME Fed expectations little changed since 6/14 meeting
- Tom Lee raises S&P 500 forecast to 4825. Sees inflation fading, AI boosting tech.
- Katie Stockon targets 4510 on the S&P 500
- Inflation cooling?
- S&P Global: PMI Price index drop at fastest pace in 3 years
- ISM manufacturing misses estimates, prices drop
- CNBC: GM Q2 sales growth suggests supply-chain normalcy
- June consumer sentiment revised higher amid “striking upswing”
Chart Notes
- Visa May Be Attempting a Breakout
- Chevron Could Be Squeezing from its Lows
- Salesforce Has Been Snoozing
- Lower high for Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX)
- Mastercard (MA) tests new highs (earnings 7/27)
- Oracle (ORCL) holds post-earnings gap
- Rivian Automotive (RIVN) nears 200-day MA
- Boeing (BA) holds 50-, 100-day MAs after bullish inside week (earnings 7/26)
- Crude oil futures (@CL) close above 50-day MA
Mover of the Week: Trade Desk
- Ad-management software for new digital ecosystem
- Earnings, revenue beat last three quarters
- Sitting at 50% recovery from drop November 2021 to July 2022
- Potential bullish triangle at August 2022 high
- TTD + 72% YTD
Upcoming Events
- Friday (7/7): Non-farm payrolls
- Wednesday (7/12): CPI
- Thursday (7/13): PPI
- Earnings: DAL, PEP
- Friday (7/14): Consumer sentiment
- Earnings: JPM, C, UNH, WFC, UNH
Using the Platform
Hourly active chart uses several indicators and ShowMes
- Directional signals:
- MACD cross days: Positive readings show MACD rising
- Note: MACD has special settings to emulate daily signals
- MovAvg Order: 50-hour MA vs 100-hour MA
- New 52-week highs (white crosses on chart)
- MACD cross days: Positive readings show MACD rising
- Overbought/oversold signals:
- RSI
- Keltner pullback
- Note: Updated from previous zip files
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