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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 holds middle of 4050-4187 range
- Debt ceiling may increasingly overshadow technicals into June 1
- Potential support at 50-day MA at 4090
- 20 level on VIX is potential signal
- Some analysts see risk of “liquidity drain” once Treasury can borrow again.
- Bullish sentiment historically low, according to AAII
Key Economic News
- Fed hints at pause:
- 5/19: Powell sees “risk of doing too much,” waits for May data.
- 5/24: Fed minutes see “less certain” need for hikes and “the past years’ tightening was beginning to have its intended effect.”
- S&P PMI shows acceleration in May:
- 54.5 vs 50 estimate, biggest increase in 13 months
- Services lead as inventories weigh on manufacturing (potentially good for inflation)
- Manufacturers’ input costs drop for first time in 3 years
- April new home sales beat: 683K (annualized) vs 670K estimate
Leaders & Laggards
- Energy tries to bounce as inventories fall, Saudis threaten
- Software, cybersecurity outperform
- Precious metals, housing, global stocks lag
- China leads to the downside
- Safe havens drop: Consumer staples, REITs
- Nvidia (NVDA) guides 50% above consensus on AI demand
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) earnings, revenue beat
- Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings, revenue beat
- Apple (AAPL): 21-day EMA pullback
- Shopify (SHOP): 21-day EMA pullback
- McDonald’s (MCD): 50-day MA pullback
- Oracle (ORCL): 21-day EMA pullback
- Micron Technology (MU): Breaks out, pulls back
- Applied Materials (AMAT): Breaks out, pulls back
- Cemex (CX): Keltner pullback
- Mastercard (MA): Pulls back to 50-day MA, Keltner channel
Mover of the Week: Symbiotic (SYM)
- AI-powered warehouse robots for e-commerce
- Earnings, revenue guidance beat on 5/1
- SYM +170% YTD
- Tomorrow 5/25: Durable goods, PCE inflation
- Monday 5/29: Memorial Day holiday
- Tuesday 5/30: Consumer confidence. HP (HPQ) earnings
- Wednesday 5/31: Salesforce.com (CRM)
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