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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 holds middle of 4050-4187 range
  • Debt ceiling may increasingly overshadow technicals into June 1
  • Potential support at 50-day MA at 4090
  • 20 level on VIX is potential signal
  • Some analysts see risk of “liquidity drain” once Treasury can borrow again.
  • Bullish sentiment historically low, according to AAII

Key Economic News

  • Fed hints at pause:
    • 5/19: Powell sees “risk of doing too much,” waits for May data.
    • 5/24: Fed minutes see “less certain” need for hikes and “the past years’ tightening was beginning to have its intended effect.”
  • S&P PMI shows acceleration in May:
    • 54.5 vs 50 estimate, biggest increase in 13 months
    • Services lead as inventories weigh on manufacturing (potentially good for inflation)
    • Manufacturers’ input costs drop for first time in 3 years
  • April new home sales beat: 683K (annualized) vs 670K estimate

Leaders & Laggards

  • Energy tries to bounce as inventories fall, Saudis threaten
  • Software, cybersecurity outperform
  • Precious metals, housing, global stocks lag
  • China leads to the downside
  • Safe havens drop: Consumer staples, REITs

Company News

  • Nvidia (NVDA) guides 50% above consensus on AI demand
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) earnings, revenue beat
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings, revenue beat
S&P 500, daily chart, with recent range and select indicators.

Signals Scan

  • Apple (AAPL): 21-day EMA pullback
  • Shopify (SHOP): 21-day EMA pullback
  • McDonald’s (MCD): 50-day MA pullback
  • Oracle (ORCL): 21-day EMA pullback
  • Micron Technology (MU): Breaks out, pulls back
  • Applied Materials (AMAT): Breaks out, pulls back
  • Cemex (CX): Keltner pullback
  • Mastercard (MA): Pulls back to 50-day MA, Keltner channel

Mover of the Week: Symbiotic (SYM)

  • AI-powered warehouse robots for e-commerce
  • Earnings, revenue guidance beat on 5/1
  • SYM +170% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • Tomorrow 5/25: Durable goods, PCE inflation
  • Monday 5/29: Memorial Day holiday
  • Tuesday 5/30: Consumer confidence. HP (HPQ) earnings
  • Wednesday 5/31: (CRM)

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