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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 sitting between 200-day and 50-day MAs
  • MACD inching higher
  • Weak U.S. dollar, lower yields are potentially positive for growth stocks
  • VIX above/below 20 could be a potential signal for S&P 500

Key Economic News

  • February existing home sales beat estimates, biggest gain since July 2020
  • Crude oil inventories unexpectedly rise
  • FOMC hikes 25bp as expected, forecasts one more hike this year.
    • Futures show 50-75bp of expected hikes have disappeared in the last month.
S&P 500, daily chart, with selected technical patterns.

Company News

  • Tesla (TSLA) upgraded to investment grade by Moody’s. Reports suggest strong sales in Europe and China.
    • Q1 deliveries due in early April.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) gains as GTC conference highlights artificial intelligence (AI)
    • BofA raises price target from $275 to $310
    • Bernstein sees accelerated-computing power opportunity in data centers.
    • Barclays: NVDA is “king of generative AI,” which is the “biggest secular tailwind in Tech.”
  • Meta Platforms (META): KeyBanc upgrades to overweight amid cost cuts, stable advertising.
  • GameStop (GME) jumps after cost cuts drive surprise profit.
  • FedEx (FDX) price target raises by Argus, Bernstein after cost cuts boost profits..
  • (AMZN) tests $100 after cutting 9,000 jobs.
  • Krispy Kreme (DNUT) gaining on streak of positive news:
    • Earnings beat on price hikes (2/15)
    • McDonald’s (MCD) widens donut collaboration (2/27)
    • Truist raises to Buy on volume growth potential (3/22)

Cost-cuts pay off: META, GME, FDX, AMZN

Leaders & Laggards

  • Safe havens fall: REITs, utilities, consumer staples
  • Gold miners rally as U.S. dollar weakens
  • Growth continues to outperform: Software, semiconductors, Big Tech

Signals Scan

  • Apple (AAPL): “Golden cross”
  • Adobe (ADBE): “Golden cross”
  • Exact Sciences (EXAS) holds 50-day MA
  • Tesla (TSLA): nearing potential MACD crossover
  • McDonald’s (MCD) in tight channel above 200-day MA
  • Ford Motor (F): potential bearish triangle forming sine August

Mover of the Week: Carvana

Carvana (CVNA) rallies on debt restructuring offer.

  • Would term out $1 billion of notes at a discount, replacing with more flexible securities.
  • Potential beneficiary of Fed pausing rate hikes.
  • Short interest around 70% of float may fuel buying.

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (3/24): Durable goods orders, Bullard speech
  • Tuesday (3/28): Consumer confidence
    • Micron Technology (MU) earnings in post market
  • Friday (3/31): PCE inflation

Using the Platform

Platform tool of the week: Strategy back testing with multiple data inputs.

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