Downloads available here and here. Anchored VWAP and Keltner pullback here.
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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 tries to hold 50% retracement of the move between October low and February high.
- Prices try to remain above 2022’s falling trendline.
- Number of S&P 500 companies above 20-day MA rises above number above 50-day MA.
- Will it break support before the March 22 Federal Reserve meeting?
Key Economic News
- Economic data is mostly deflationary:
- February CPI inline with expectations. Shelter still rising.
- February PPI -0.1% vs +0.3% estimate. Food, transportation costs dropping.
- February retail sales -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate. Autos -1.8%
- March Empire index -24.6 vs -8 estimate. New orders fall.
- Crude oil inventories finally rising: EIA inventories +1.6mln barrels last week.
- March NAHB homebuilder sentiment 44 vs 41 estimate. 3rd straight beat as traffic improves.
- Microsoft (MSFT) gains as OpenAI releases GPT-4.
- Meta Platforms (META) rises after announcing 10,000 more job cuts.
- United Airlines (UAL) tanks on profit warning.
- Consistent with PPI report on transportation costs..
- Airlines previously showed strong demand trends.
- Illumina (ILMN) gains on Carl Icahn proxy fight
Leaders & Laggards
- Financials, banks plunge after SIVB, SBNY failures.
- Safe havens take the lead as fear spreads: Utilities, consumer staples, health care, precious metals
- Cyclicals drop on economic worries: Energy, materials, industrials
- Communications and Technology are now the best performers YTD amid growth comeback.
- Nasdaq-100 “Golden cross”
- Custom scan:
- 50-day MA above 200-day MA
- 8-day EMA above 21-day EMA
- Price near bottom of Keltner Channel
- Results: Builders FirstSource (BLDR), C3.ai (AI), Mercadolibre (MELI)
- Hershey (HSY), Boston Scientific (BSX), Stryker (SYK) linger near 52-week highs
- Financials back near peaks from 2007 and 2020
Mover of the Week: Maxeon Solar
Maxeon Solar (MAXN) beat revenue estimates on 3/7.
- First quarter with positive EBITDA since 2020 spinoff from SunPower (SPWR)
- Morgan Stanley expects stronger margins and orders.
- Friday (3/17): Quad witching, consumer sentiment
- Tuesday (3/21): Nike (NKE) earnings in post market
- Wednesday (3/22): Fed decision, press conference
Using the Platform
Platform tool of the week: Keltner pullback (custom indicator)
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above
|ETF||1 Year||5 Years||10 Years|
|SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)||-9.25%||+45.87||+161.37%|
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