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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 in midst of first negative month since October
  • Prices break trendline, rising 21-day exponential moving average
  • Rate of change, Wilder’s RSI no longer reflecting positive momentum
  • 4/8 bearish outside day potentially similar to 7/27, followed by a drop four days later
  • TradeStation data: 8 index members hit 52-week lows on Wednesday vs 3 highs. First time since 11/2 that lows outnumber highs.
  • Intermarket:
    • 10-year Treasury yield highest since November, above key level at 4.324%
    • Euro at risk of breaking December low
S&P 500, with select patterns and indicators.

Key News

  • March CPI (headline and core) +0.4% vs +0.3% estimate. Shelter, insurance, apparel, medical costs increase.
    • 3rd month with core higher than expected
  • March non-farm payrolls +303K vs 200K estimate. Unemployment 3.8% vs 3.9% estimate.
  • Potential negatives for Treasuries:
    • U.S. Treasury reportedly has worst 10-year auction since November 2022 (according to BMO). Dealers kept 24% of supply vs 16% average.
    • March fiscal deficit $236bln vs $209bln estimate as interest payments rise.
    • “Vicious cycle” of higher rates → wider deficits → more Treasury supply → higher rates?
  • Insurance rates to keep rising because of higher costs and losses: David Sampson, CEO of American Property Casualty Insurance Association tells CNBC
  • Fed minutes show less confidence that inflation is moderating
  • CNBC: “Supercore” inflation (ex-shelter) potentially running near 8% on insurance, tax costs

Signals Scan

  • Morgan Stanley (MS) potentially trapped at December high
  • Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) at risk of breaking 21-day EMAs
  • HP (HPQ) breaking 50-, 200-day MAs
  • CVS Health (CVS) breaking 200-day MA
  • Coca-Cola (KO) at risk of breaking 200-day MA
  • REITs under 200-day MAs: AMT, SBAC, CCI, KIM, O
  • SNAP “death cross”
  • YELP hitting potential resistance at falling 50-day MA

Upcoming Events

  • Fri 4/12: Earnings season kickoff: JPM, C, WFC
    • Earnings: JPM, C, WFC
  • Mon 4/15: Retail sales
    • Earnings: GS
  • Tues 4/16: Housing starts / building permits
    • Earnings: BAC, MS, UNH, JNJ, UAL
  • Wed 4/17: Crude oil inventories
    • Earnings: USB,
  • Thu 4/18: Jobless claims
    • Earnings: TSM, NFLX

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David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.