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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 forming inside bar after large bullish weekly candle
- VIX falls below February 2020 low
- Breadth potentially widens as equal-weighted index plays catch-up
- Junk-bond spreads are back near levels from before Fed started hiking
- 10-, 30-year Treasury yields making lower monthly highs versus May
- Potential support: August high of 4325, post-Fed low of 4338
- Potential next resistance: 4513 (weekly high from April 2022), 4637 (March 2022 high)
- Wednesday was 1st pullback to 8-day EMA since June 1
Key News
- Housing data continues to beat:
- June NAHB sentiment 55 vs 51 estimate, 1st reading above 50 since July 2022. Sales conditions, expectations and traffic improve.
- May Housing starts, building permits beat. Annualized starts +291K, biggest increase since 1990.
- Savita Subramanian of BofA: Stock market most rational in a decade. Sees AI boosting old-economy stocks potentially more than tech.
- Powell in Congress: Most policymakers want to hike more.
- Goldman Sachs raises 12-month S&P 500 target to 4,700, citing AI. Recession risk now seen below 50%.
Leaders & Laggards
- Tech stalls as money shifts to old-economy cyclicals
- Industrials, materials outpacing tech this month
- Russell 2000 outpacing Nasdaq-100 this month
- Brazil, Argentina, Mexico gaining as China stalls
- Grains rallying after Kakhovka Dam collapse. Will fertilizer stocks follow?
- Fiber-optic gains after Citi, Morgan Stanley upgrade Corning (GLW), expecting wider margins
- Euro continues higher after Powell comments
Mover of the Week: YPF Sociedad
- “Dead cow” (Vaca Muerta) fracking play comes to life for Argentine oil driller
- YPF +68% YTD
Using the Platform
Scan for non-index runners:
- On Symbol Universe exclude Nasdaq-100, S&P 500 members:
- TradeStation Symbol Lists → Index Components → Nasdaq Indexes / S&P Indexes
- Scan Criteria:
- Price → % of 52 Wk High/Low > 75
- Profitability → Revenues → Revenues (TTM) > 100
- Indicator → Days Since 52wk HL → High < 10
- Indicator → Industry <> “”
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