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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 forming inside bar after large bullish weekly candle
  • VIX falls below February 2020 low
  • Breadth potentially widens as equal-weighted index plays catch-up
  • Junk-bond spreads are back near levels from before Fed started hiking
  • 10-, 30-year Treasury yields making lower monthly highs versus May
  • Potential support: August high of 4325, post-Fed low of 4338
  • Potential next resistance: 4513 (weekly high from April 2022), 4637 (March 2022 high)
  • Wednesday was 1st pullback to 8-day EMA since June 1
S&P 500, daily chart, with select indicators and patterns.

Key News

  • Housing data continues to beat:
    • June NAHB sentiment 55 vs 51 estimate, 1st reading above 50 since July 2022. Sales conditions, expectations and traffic improve.
    • May Housing starts, building permits beat. Annualized starts +291K, biggest increase since 1990.
  • Savita Subramanian of BofA: Stock market most rational in a decade. Sees AI boosting old-economy stocks potentially more than tech.
  • Powell in Congress: Most policymakers want to hike more.
  • Goldman Sachs raises 12-month S&P 500 target to 4,700, citing AI. Recession risk now seen below 50%.

Leaders & Laggards

  • Tech stalls as money shifts to old-economy cyclicals
    • Industrials, materials outpacing tech this month
    • Russell 2000 outpacing Nasdaq-100 this month
  • Brazil, Argentina, Mexico gaining as China stalls
  • Grains rallying after Kakhovka Dam collapse. Will fertilizer stocks follow?
  • Fiber-optic gains after Citi, Morgan Stanley upgrade Corning (GLW), expecting wider margins
  • Euro continues higher after Powell comments

Mover of the Week: YPF Sociedad

  • “Dead cow” (Vaca Muerta) fracking play comes to life for Argentine oil driller
  • YPF +68% YTD

Using the Platform

Scan for non-index runners:

  • On Symbol Universe exclude Nasdaq-100, S&P 500 members:
    • TradeStation Symbol Lists →  Index Components → Nasdaq Indexes / S&P Indexes
  • Scan Criteria:
    • Price → % of 52 Wk High/Low > 75
    • Profitability → Revenues → Revenues (TTM) > 100
    • Indicator → Days Since 52wk HL → High < 10
    • Indicator → Industry <> “”

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