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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 makes lower weekly high at post-Fed gap
- Outside days on 10/12 and 10/17 are potential reversal patterns
- 8-day EMA fails to cross above 21-day EMA (short term)
- 20-, 30-, 50-day moving averages all falling (intermediate term)
- Price stalls below 100-day MA (long-term)
- Combination of higher for longer and geopolitical risk may pressure valuations
Key News
- Retail sales beat for 3rd straight month, boosting rate outlook
- Airlines drop as United Airlines (UAL) warns of fuel costs, global tensions
- CEO Scott Kirby to CNBC: Business models must change to survive as labor costs rise
- Apple’s pair of bearish analyst notes
- Jefferies: iPhone loses leadership in China to Huawei / Android
- Ming-Chi Kuo: MacBook demand down “significantly” in back-to-school season
- Chips fall on Biden Administration China trade restrictions
- Lam Research (LRCX) falls on mixed guidance
- Housing struggles:
- NAHB homebuilder sentiment drops more than expected to lowest since January
- Mortgage purchases applications -6% as 30-year mortgage tops 8% for first time since 2000
- Morgan Stanley: Engagement growing for Meta Platforms’ (META) Reels among Facebook, Instagram users.
- Tesla (TSLA) earnings, revenue miss estimates as operating margin narrows from 17.2% to 7.6%.
- Netflix (NFLX) subscribers, earnings beat amid password crackdown.
Sector Watch
- P&C insurers rally amid strong premiums, safe-haven status: PGR, ALL, ACGL
- Energy: Wildcatters, oil tankers outperform
- Wildcatters: SM, CPE, MGY
- Tankers: DHT, FRO, TNK
- Diabetes-related stocks under pressure: DVA, DXCM, BAX, PODD
- Airlines fall as oil rises, global tensions mount
- Semiconductors fall amid trade worries
- Chinese tech stocks under pressure
Signals Scan
- Gold futures (@GC): Potential weekly breakout
- Amazon.com (AMZN) stalls under 21-day EMA, 50-day MA
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM) potentially stalling at 50-day MA
- Rivian Automotive (RIVN) potentially breaking 200-day MA
- Bank of America (BAC) near top of Keltner Channel
- Fintechs: Potential downtrends starting in SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Affirm (AFRM)
- Sea (SE): Potentially stalling in bearish gap
Mover of the Week: Diamondback Energy
- Shale-oil producer active near Midland in central Texas
- Has rallied since Exxon Mobil (XOM) acquired peer Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)
- FANG +24% YTD
Upcoming Events
- Tomorrow (10/20): Harker of Fed to speak
- Earnings: AXP, SLB
- Tuesday (10/24)
- Pre-market earnings: GM, HAL
- Post-market earnings: MSFT, SNAP, TXN, V
- Wednesday (10/25): New home sales, crude-oil inventories
- Pre-market earnings: BA, TMUS
- Post-market earnings: META, NOW, IBM
- Thursday (10/26): GDP, jobless claims, durable goods
- Pre-market earnings: MA, RCL, CMCSA
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