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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • Current range: 4050 to 4187
  • Kicker candlestick on Friday
  • Consecutive weekly lows around 4050 suggest higher support in place
  • Index holding near top of range, above 10-day MA
  • Wednesday held Friday’s opening price
  • Environment may resemble late 2019, with high negativity and tight squeeze against resistance.
  • Potential signals from 10-day MA and RSI
  • Debt ceiling solution still unclear
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators.

Key Economic News

  • April CPI +4.9% y-o-y vs 5% estimate.
    • Smallest increase since April 2021
    • CME FedWatch expecting at least 50bp of cuts this year
    • CPI now below Fed Funds rate for first time since April 2015
  • Q1 senior loan officer opinion survey shows limited credit contraction

Company News

  • Alphabet (GOOGL) has biggest gain since March on AI push
  • Palantir (PLTR): earnings, revenue, guidance beat
    • Citi, William Blair analysts skeptical of growth prospects
  • Zscaler (ZS): Earnings, revenue, guidance beat. Bookings seen up 38-39%. (cybersecurity)
  • Duolingo (DUOL): Earnings, revenue beat. (Online learning)
  • Walt Disney (DIS): Earnings miss as streaming subscribers fall.
  • Carvana (CVNA): Squeezes higher on turnaround plan

Some forgotten growth stocks have gapped to new 52-week highs:

  • Shopify (SHOP)
  • Draftkings (DKNG)
  • Uber Technologies (UBER)
  • HubSpot (HUBS)

Signals Scan

  • (CRM): Ascending triangle breakout
  • Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ($SOX) challenges falling trendline
  • “Death cross” in 10-year Treasury yield ($TNX.X)
  • Mercadolibre (MELI): Range from outside candle after strong earnings
  • Procter & Gamble (PG): Post-earnings pullback to 21-day EMA
  • Unilever (UL): Keltner channel pullback

Mover of the Week: Opera

  • Little known Norwegian web browser with AI potential
  • Earnings, revenue and guidance beat on April 27
  • OPRA +138% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • Tomorrow 5/12: Biden/Congressional talks on debt ceiling
  • Big housing data next week
  • Tuesday 5/16: Retail sales, NAHB homebuilder sentiment
    • Earnings: Home Depot (HD)
  • Wednesday 5/17: Housing starts/building permits
    • Earnings: Target (TGT), Cisco Systems (CSCO)
  • Thursday 5/18: Jobless claims
    • Walmart (WMT)

Using the Platform

Modifying indicators to make talking alerts.

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)0.95%+57.25%+160.48%
As of April 28, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

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