S&P 500 Challenges Falling Trendline: Market Trends This Week

Downloads available here and here. Anchored VWAP and Keltner pullback here.

Also: multidata crossover strategy.

Register for Market Trends here. Next session is Thursday, May 4.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 holds rising trendline, tries to break falling trendline
• Reclaims 50-day MA, VIX falls back under 20
• 50 percent retracements held on 3/24, 3/28
• Potential upside risk into 4/12 Fed minutes
• 10-day MA, MACD signaled bounce
• Index internals (members above 20-day & 50-day MAs) signaled bounce
• Longer-term MAs in positive sequence: 50-day MA > 100-day MA > 200-day MA

Key Economic News

• March consumer confidence beats estimates as expectations improve.
  • February revised higher.
  • Labor market weaker (dovish for Fed?)
• February pending home sales unexpectedly rise
  • NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: “After nearly a year, the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.”

Company News

• Bullish news in semiconductors:
  • Micron Technology (MU): Gains as analysts see inventory cycle turning positive.
  • Intel (INTC): Updated chips coming soon. Xeon (server), “Sierra Forest” (low power)
    • The next “Boeing?” (DJIA comeback following product mishaps?)
• Alibaba (BABA): Rallies on six-way breakup/spinoff
  • Another “Strategic Action” in Tech space.
• Paychex (PAYX): Earnings, revenue beat estimates
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU): Earnings, revenue, guidance beats. Pricing strong, China recovers.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): Potentially bullish options trade in May 35 calls & May 27 puts

Leaders & Laggards

• Energy leads rebound from bank panic
• Chinese stocks, metals outperform
• Health care continues to lag

Signals Scan

• Apple (AAPL): Bullish inside week
• Broadcom (AVGO): Holds 21-day EMA after strong results
• Applied Materials (AMAT): Holds rising 50-day MA
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Holds rising 21-day EMA
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Holds rising 50-day MA, Keltner Channel after earnings gap

Mover of the Week: On Holding

On Holding (ONON) +79% YTD

• Rallied after 3/21 earnings report. Management expects “largely normalized operations.”
• ONON went public for $24 on 9/14/21, bottomed under $16 last October.
• !IPO_tool indicator can find recent IPOs

Upcoming Events

• Friday (3/31): PCE inflation
• Monday (4/3): ISM manufacturing index
• Wednesday (4/5): ADP private-sector payrolls
• Friday (4/7): Non-farm payrolls
• Wednesday (4/12): Fed minutes

Using the Platform

Platform tool of the week: Strategy back-testing & automation

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

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