Downloads available here and here. Anchored VWAP and Keltner pullback here.

Also: multidata crossover strategy.

Register for Market Trends here. Next session is Thursday, May 4.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 holds rising trendline, tries to break falling trendline
  • Reclaims 50-day MA, VIX falls back under 20
  • 50 percent retracements held on 3/24, 3/28
  • Potential upside risk into 4/12 Fed minutes
  • 10-day MA, MACD signaled bounce
  • Index internals (members above 20-day & 50-day MAs) signaled bounce
  • Longer-term MAs in positive sequence: 50-day MA > 100-day MA > 200-day MA

Key Economic News

  • March consumer confidence beats estimates as expectations improve.
    • February revised higher.
    • Labor market weaker (dovish for Fed?)
  • February pending home sales unexpectedly rise
    • NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: “After nearly a year, the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.”
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select indicators.

Company News

  • Bullish news in semiconductors:
    • Micron Technology (MU): Gains as analysts see inventory cycle turning positive.
    • Intel (INTC): Updated chips coming soon. Xeon (server), “Sierra Forest” (low power)
      • The next “Boeing?” (DJIA comeback following product mishaps?)
  • Alibaba (BABA): Rallies on six-way breakup/spinoff
  • Paychex (PAYX): Earnings, revenue beat estimates
  • Lululemon Athletica (LULU): Earnings, revenue, guidance beats. Pricing strong, China recovers.
  • Delta Air Lines (DAL): Potentially bullish options trade in May 35 calls & May 27 puts

Leaders & Laggards

  • Energy leads rebound from bank panic
  • Chinese stocks, metals outperform
  • Health care continues to lag

Signals Scan

  • Apple (AAPL): Bullish inside week
  • Broadcom (AVGO): Holds 21-day EMA after strong results
  • Applied Materials (AMAT): Holds rising 50-day MA
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Holds rising 21-day EMA
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Holds rising 50-day MA, Keltner Channel after earnings gap

Mover of the Week: On Holding

On Holding (ONON) +79% YTD

  • Rallied after 3/21 earnings report. Management expects “largely normalized operations.”
  • ONON went public for $24 on 9/14/21, bottomed under $16 last October.
  • !IPO_tool indicator can find recent IPOs

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (3/31): PCE inflation
  • Monday (4/3): ISM manufacturing index
  • Wednesday (4/5): ADP private-sector payrolls
  • Friday (4/7): Non-farm payrolls
  • Wednesday (4/12): Fed minutes

Using the Platform

Platform tool of the week: Strategy back-testing & automation

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)-9.25%+45.87+161.37%
As of Feb. 28, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

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