Also: multidata crossover strategy.
Register for Market Trends here. Next session is Thursday, May 4.
Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 holds rising trendline, tries to break falling trendline
- Reclaims 50-day MA, VIX falls back under 20
- 50 percent retracements held on 3/24, 3/28
- Potential upside risk into 4/12 Fed minutes
- 10-day MA, MACD signaled bounce
- Index internals (members above 20-day & 50-day MAs) signaled bounce
- Longer-term MAs in positive sequence: 50-day MA > 100-day MA > 200-day MA
Key Economic News
- March consumer confidence beats estimates as expectations improve.
- February revised higher.
- Labor market weaker (dovish for Fed?)
- February pending home sales unexpectedly rise
- NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: “After nearly a year, the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.”
- Bullish news in semiconductors:
- Micron Technology (MU): Gains as analysts see inventory cycle turning positive.
- Intel (INTC): Updated chips coming soon. Xeon (server), “Sierra Forest” (low power)
- The next “Boeing?” (DJIA comeback following product mishaps?)
- Alibaba (BABA): Rallies on six-way breakup/spinoff
- Another “Strategic Action” in Tech space.
- Paychex (PAYX): Earnings, revenue beat estimates
- Lululemon Athletica (LULU): Earnings, revenue, guidance beats. Pricing strong, China recovers.
- Delta Air Lines (DAL): Potentially bullish options trade in May 35 calls & May 27 puts
Leaders & Laggards
- Energy leads rebound from bank panic
- Chinese stocks, metals outperform
- Health care continues to lag
- Apple (AAPL): Bullish inside week
- Broadcom (AVGO): Holds 21-day EMA after strong results
- Applied Materials (AMAT): Holds rising 50-day MA
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Holds rising 21-day EMA
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Holds rising 50-day MA, Keltner Channel after earnings gap
Mover of the Week: On Holding
On Holding (ONON) +79% YTD
- Rallied after 3/21 earnings report. Management expects “largely normalized operations.”
- ONON went public for $24 on 9/14/21, bottomed under $16 last October.
- !IPO_tool indicator can find recent IPOs
- Friday (3/31): PCE inflation
- Monday (4/3): ISM manufacturing index
- Wednesday (4/5): ADP private-sector payrolls
- Friday (4/7): Non-farm payrolls
- Wednesday (4/12): Fed minutes
Using the Platform
Platform tool of the week: Strategy back-testing & automation
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above
|ETF||1 Year||5 Years||10 Years|
|SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)||-9.25%||+45.87||+161.37%|
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