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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 breaks June high as short-term bearishness grows
- 20-day moving average accelerates to downside
- Intermarket risks:
- 10-year Treasury yield nears October high
- U.S. Dollar index breaks downtrend from May
- VIX holds 2021 closing low of 15
- Macro conditions potentially less favorable (more hawkish; see below)
- Potential levels:
- 4328: June 26 low, near August 2022 high
- 4200: February high and 50% retracement of March-July move.
Key News
- Hawkish comeback:
- Retail sales +0.7% vs +0.4% estimate. Ex-auto +1% vs +0.1% estimate
- Fed minutes: “upside risks to inflation … could require further tightening of monetary policy.”
- Industrial production +1% vs +0.3% est
- But doves (deflation) lurking?
- China slowdown: retail sales, industrial production, Country Garden collapse, PBOC rate cuts
- Atlanta Fed inflation inflation expectations 2.5% in August vs 2.8% in July
- Barchart.com: M2 money supply falling at fastest pace in at least 50 years
- U.S. Steel (X) jumps amid takeover reports
Mover of the Week: New York Times
- Earnings, revenue beat
- Subscriptions growing after business-model adjustments
- Potential transformation story
- NYT +31%
Upcoming Events
- Friday (8/17): DE earnings
- Wednesday (8/23): New home sales, crude-oil inventories
- Earnings: NVDA, PTON KSS AAP ADI
- Thursday (8/24): Initial jobless claims
- Tuesday (8/15): Retail sales, NAHB housing index
- Earnings: HD
- Wednesday (8/16): Oil inventories, Housing starts/permits, Fed minutes
- Earnings: TGT, CSCO
- Thursday (8/17): Jobless claims, durable claims
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Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.
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