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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • Index holds recent channel, weekly low from 2/5
  • Wilder’s RSI remains near overbought
  • Prices hold rising 10-day MA
  • Index rose in 14 of 15 weeks when this week began
  • Fed minutes on 2/21 are potential risk

Key News

  • Nvidia (NVDA) in focus before earnings next Wednesday 2/21 (post market)
    • Citi raises estimates and price target ($850), says shorter lead times could result in more sales
    • Mizuho raises price target from $625 to $875 based on AI leadership
    • Susquehanna raises price target from $625 to $850. Sees “long-tail” of companies needing to invest this year.
    • NVDA passes GOOGL in market cap, vies with AMZN
  • Uber Technologies (UBER) rises on buyback
  • Robinhood (HOOD) beats on strong monthly users. Is bull market awareness spreading?
  • Lyft (LYFT) rallies on profitability improvement
  • CNH Industrial (CNHI) reveals price increases across machinery
  • January core CPI +0.4% vs +0.3% estimate, led by auto insurance, shelter and medical care
  • EIA crude oil inventories +12mln barrels vs 2.6mln est.
  • Gene Munster: Nasdaq could double or triple in next 2-3 years on AI growth.
  • Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG: Momentum could shift from large-cap growth to Russell 2000 small caps this week.
  • HSBC upgrades HPQ before earnings on 2/28
  • Earnings overview:
    • LSEG (former Thomson Financial): Q4 earnings +9% vs forecast of 4.7% when year began
    • FactSet: S&P 500 P/E ratio over 20x (1st time since February 2022) as investors reward earnings beats more than average

Sector Watch

  • Chips, retailers, biotechnology, small caps outperforming in the last week.
  • Solar energy bouncing after major decline
  • Crypto-related stocks rally: RIOT, CLSK, MARA, COIN
  • Gold miners, energy lag

Mover of the Week: Viking Therapeutics

  • Broke 2023 high after earnings beat on 2/7
  • Stifel raises price target from $30 to $35, citing metabolic disease treatments
  • VKTX +148% since 12/1, when Roche acquired rival Carmot
  • Potential treatments in obesity and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), non-alcoholic liver disease
    • Both conditions have potential large global markets

Signals Scan

  • Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) holds 50-day MA, August high
  • Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) holding 50-day MA
  • AT&T (T), Verizon Communications (VZ) near bottom of Keltner channels
  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) falls under 200-day MA

Upcoming Events

  • Thu 2/15:
    • Earnings: AMAT, COIN, ROKU, DKNG, DASH
  • Fri 2/16: PPI, housing starts/building permits
  • Mon 2/19: Presidents’ Day
  • Tues 2/20:
    • Earnings: WMT, PANW, HD
  • Wed 2/21: Fed minutes
    • Earnings: NVDA, ETSY, VRT
  • Thu 2/22: Oil inventories, jobless claims

Using the Platform

  • “MA X Days Since” custom indicator displays the candles since two moving averages crossed
    • Faster MA above slower MA shown with positive outputs.
    • Works in RadarScreen, Scanner and Charts

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David Russell is VP of Market Intelligence at TradeStation Group. Drawing on two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.