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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 tests and holds December high of 4,101.
    • 38.2% retracement of YTD move
  • Tests and holds middle of price channel, potential signal for bull flag breakout
  • S&P 500 forming second inside week
  • Historical volatility, VIX continue to fall.
  • 21-day EMA potentially marking uptrend

Key Economic News:

  • Oil inventories rise more than expected amid record U.S. shale production.
  • January CPI higher than expected after December upward revision
  • Retail sales, Empire Index may suggest little recession risk.
  • NAHB homebuilder sentiment has biggest gain in almost 10 years as sales expectations jump.

Company News

  • Cisco Systems (CSCO): earnings, revenue beat; government business strong, similar to cybersecurity names last week
  • Smaller growth stocks (including recent IPOs) jump on strong results:
    • Uber Technologies (UBER)
    • Palantir (PLTR)
    • Airbnb (ABNB)
    • Roku (ROKU)
    • Twilio (TWLO)
    • Roblox (RBLX)
  • DexCom (DXCM): Earnings, revenue beat ahead of G7 product launch tomorrow
S&P 500, daily chart, with key technical indicators and levels, courtesy of TradingView.

Leaders & Laggards

  • Growth stocks continue to outperform.
  • Chinese stocks struggle as economy struggles to recover
  • Precious metals crumble as inflation fears subside and U.S. stabilizes.
  • Safe havens are the only losers YTD: Utilities, health care, consumer staples
  • Consumer discretionaries lead in 2023 thanks to Tesla (TSLA) and cruise ships
  • Crypto-related stocks rebound after pullbacks

Signals Scan

  • Walt Disney (DIS) holds 21-day EMA
  • AT&T (T) holds 50-day MA after “Golden Cross” on 1/4
  • KLA (KLAC) holds 50-day MA, August high.
  • Stryker (SYK) pulls back from record high, holds 21-day EMA.

Mover of the Week: AppLovin

AppLovin (APP) jumps 85% after dropping 92% from November 2021.

  • The mobile-software maker’s earnings, revenue and guidance beat forecasts.

Upcoming Events

  • Monday, 2/20: Presidents’ Day (market closed)
  • Tuesday 2/21:
    • Walmart (WMT) reports in premarket.
  • Wednesday, 2/22: Fed minutes.
    • Nvidia (NVDA), Etsy (ETSY) report in the post market
  • Thursday, 2/23: Revised Q4 GDP
    • Alibaba (BABA) reports in premarket
    • Block (SQ) reports in postmarket
  • Friday, 2/24: CPE inflation

Using the Platform

Platform tool of the week: Price channels

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