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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 holds tight range 1.6% from record high
- Friday’s last price was the index’s highest weekly close ever
- Holds 21-day EMA, forming inside week
- Breadth weaker as megacaps keep leadership
- VIX peaks at 15 (old support in 2021)
- S&P 500 may resemble April-May 2023 period before debt ceiling was raised. (This time, the 1/31 Fed meeting is a potential catalyst.)
- Treasury yields may be near top of recent ranges
- 10-year (TNX) potentially topping at lows of 12/6 and 12/7
Key News
- Retail sales beat estimates for 6th straight month
- NAHB homebuilder sentiment beats estimates on sales optimism
- Christopher Waller and WSJ’s Timiraos cite QT reduction.
- Waller sees rent inflation coming down amid data lag
- Dec PPI lower than expected, Nov revised lower
- Jan Empire Index misses estimates amid weak orders and shipments
- UBS raises S&P 500 yearend target to 5150 from 4850, citing rate cuts and lower inflation
- Bill Ackman on CNBC: Fed needs to move early, cut more than 3x in 2024 with “inflation cooling very meaningfully.”
- More oil: Norway grants 62 exploration permits, up from 47 a year ago
China Slowdown in Focus
- Q4 GDP +5.2%, missing +5.3% estimate
- Retail sales +7.4%, missing +8% estimate
- New home prices -0.4%, worst decline since February 2015
- Population falls 2.08mln, second straight annual decline
- China Beige Book: “The recovery from COVID — disappointing as it was — is over.”
- Moody’s Analytics: Stimulus needed
Microsoft vs Apple
- MSFT’s market cap surpasses AAPL thanks to enterprise-level AI focus.
- MSFT outperformed AAPL in 1990s, then lagged after iPods and iPhones
- Is a 15-20 year era of AAPL outperformance ending?
Sector Watch
- Healthcare is top-performing sector so far in 2024
- Growth stocks mostly outperforming
- Energy and Materials lead to downside amid strong economic data, Chinese weakness
- Small caps lag, but Russell 2000 revisits mid-December breakout zone
- Solar energy, electric vehicles lagging this year
- Chinese stocks revisit 2022 lows
- Weakness in precious metals could be a positive for stocks
Mover of the Week: Cameco
- Canadian uranium producer rallies as nuclear-fuel prices increase
- Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom (world’s top uranium producer) warns of potential output cut
- Global uranium supplies already squeezed by Niger unrest
- CCJ +87% in past 12 months
Upcoming Events
- Fri 1/19: Consumer sentiment, existing home sales
- Tue 1/23:
- Earnings include NFLX, JNJ, HAL, TXN, PG
- Wed 1/24:
- Earnings include TSLA, NOW, IBM
- Thu 1/25: GDP
- Earnings include INTC, V, AAL
About 13% of the S&P 500 report earnings next week. Reminder: “Next Earnings Date Studies – Next Earnings Date RS” can turn RadarScreen into an earnings calendar. See “Earnings dates” tab on “MT Main Jan 2024” workspace for more.
Using the Platform
- Keltner Pullback shows location within Keltner Channel, which creates price bands using Average True Range (ATR).
- 0% = price at bottom of Keltner Channel
- 100% = price at top of Keltner Channel
- Lower values suggest potential pullbacks
- Custom indicator for RadarScreen and Scanner (see zip file above). It was added to the “price grid” tab in newest version of the Market Trends workspace.
- Keltner Pullback can be used with moving averages to find upward-trending stocks that have pulled back, or downward-trending stocks that are overbought.
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