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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 has retraced about half its move since breaking 2022 high
- S&P 500 testing bullish gap from 2/22, when Nvidia (NVDA) reported
- Index showing significant “gloom”:
- Just 36 members above their 20-day MA, 138 above 50-day MA. Comparable to late October, early November.
- Longest losing streak (4 days) since January
- RSI, 9-day Rate of Change lowest since late October
- Intermarket: 10-year yield (TNX) potentially stalling at February gap down
Key News
- March retail sales more than 2x estimates, January revised up
- March housing starts, building permits miss by wide margin
- IMF raises 2024 global growth from 2.9% to 3.2%
- China Q1 GDP +5.3% vs +4.8% estimate
- Rates:
- Powell sees lack of progress on inflation, but…bu
- 20-year Treasury auction is better than feared
- Atlanta Fed Business inflation expectations slow as unit cost growth “significantly decreased.”
- United Airlines (UAL) earnings, revenue beat. Capex slashed from $9bln to $6.5bln
- UAL rallies the most since November 11/9/20 (Covid vaccine announcement)
- Copper gaining on signs of Chinese production cuts
- ASML (ASML) drops on revenue miss
- Travelers (TRV) drops on storm losses
- Bank of America (BAC) drops on CRE losses
Signals Scan
- First Solar (FSLR) holds December high with earnings 5/1
- Optimism about tariffs on Chinese panels
- Micron Technology (MU) holds rising 21-day EMA
- Cameco (CCJ) may have breakout potential with earnings 4/30
- Energy names touch 21-day EMA: XOM COP MPC
- Ford Motor (F) tries to hold weekly support at $12
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) accelerates lower after breaking support
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) holds 50-day MA
Upcoming Events
- Earnings tonight: NFLX, ISRG
- Tue 4/23: New home sales
- Premarket earnings: GM
- Postmarket earnings: TSLA, STX, V
- Wed 4/24: Durable goods, crude oil inventories
- Premarket earnings: BA, T
- Postmarket earnings: **META**, F, NOW, IBM, LRCX
- Thu 4/25: **GDP**, initial jobless claims
- Premarket earnings: CAT, AAL, MRK
- Postmarket earnings: **MSFT**, **GOOGL**, INTC, WDC
Using the Platform: MA speed
- “MA speed” is a custom indicator included in the zip file.
- It’s used in the chart on “MT ES” workspace, but can also work in RadarScreen
- Consider these adjustments in “Customize Indicator” dialog:
- General → Load additional data for accumulative calculations
- Style → Change “MA Change” and “Avg change” to “Percentage”
- Inputs → MA_length: change to 20
- This can potentially find stocks moving steadily over shorter terms
- These can be screened with other indicators in the zip file like 5d, EMA test, MA test and Keltner Pullback
