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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 has retraced about half its move since breaking 2022 high
  • S&P 500 testing bullish gap from 2/22, when Nvidia (NVDA) reported
  • Index showing significant “gloom”:
    • Just 36 members above their 20-day MA, 138 above 50-day MA. Comparable to late October, early November.
    • Longest losing streak (4 days) since January
    • RSI, 9-day Rate of Change lowest since late October
  • Intermarket: 10-year yield (TNX) potentially stalling at February gap down
S&P 500, daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Key News

  • March retail sales more than 2x estimates, January revised up
  • March housing starts, building permits miss by wide margin
  • IMF raises 2024 global growth from 2.9% to 3.2%
  • China Q1 GDP +5.3% vs +4.8% estimate
  • Rates:
    • Powell sees lack of progress on inflation, but…bu
    • 20-year Treasury auction is better than feared
    • Atlanta Fed Business inflation expectations slow as unit cost growth “significantly decreased.”
  • United Airlines (UAL) earnings, revenue beat. Capex slashed from $9bln to $6.5bln
    • UAL rallies the most since November 11/9/20 (Covid vaccine announcement)
  • Copper gaining on signs of Chinese production cuts
  • ASML (ASML) drops on revenue miss
  • Travelers (TRV) drops on storm losses
  • Bank of America (BAC) drops on CRE losses

Signals Scan

  • First Solar (FSLR) holds December high with earnings 5/1
    • Optimism about tariffs on Chinese panels
  • Micron Technology (MU) holds rising 21-day EMA
  • Cameco (CCJ) may have breakout potential with earnings 4/30
  • Energy names touch 21-day EMA: XOM COP MPC
  • Ford Motor (F) tries to hold weekly support at $12
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) accelerates lower after breaking support
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) holds 50-day MA

Upcoming Events

  • Earnings tonight: NFLX, ISRG
  • Tue 4/23: New home sales
    • Premarket earnings: GM
    • Postmarket earnings: TSLA, STX, V
  • Wed 4/24: Durable goods, crude oil inventories
    • Premarket earnings: BA, T
    • Postmarket earnings: **META**, F, NOW, IBM, LRCX
  • Thu 4/25: **GDP**, initial jobless claims
    • Premarket earnings: CAT, AAL, MRK
    • Postmarket earnings: **MSFT**, **GOOGL**, INTC, WDC

Using the Platform: MA speed

  • “MA speed” is a custom indicator included in the zip file.
  • It’s used in the chart on “MT ES” workspace, but can also work in RadarScreen
  • Consider these adjustments in “Customize Indicator” dialog:
    • General → Load additional data for accumulative calculations
    • Style → Change “MA Change” and “Avg change” to “Percentage”
    • Inputs → MA_length: change to 20
  • This can potentially find stocks moving steadily over shorter terms
    • These can be screened with other indicators in the zip file like 5d, EMA test, MA test and Keltner Pullback
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David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.