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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • Bearish outside day and doji candlestick
  • Potentially overbought, according to Keltner Pullback custom indicator
  • S&P 500 rose for 5 straight sessions, longest streak since November 2021
  • RSI hits overbought for 1st time since August
  • NAAIM survey +36 pts, biggest gain since April 7 2021
    • Mirrors big increase AAI survey the prior week
  • Most new 52-week highs since April 2022
  • Longer-term moving averages may limit pullbacks

Key News

  • Fed pauses but signals 2 more hikes: “Hawkish pause”
    • Powell sees progress: slower GDP growth, labor market loosening, supply-chain improvements
    • “Conditions that we need to see in place to bring inflation down are coming into place […] but the process […] is going to take some time.”
  • Inflation cools:
    • CPI hits 26-month low of 4% y-o-y.
    • PPI +1.1% vs +1.5% estimate
    • China PPI -4.6%, biggest drop since May 2016
    • Goldman Cuts oil outlook by 9.5% as Russia, Iran supply more
    • Goldman sees L-shaped recovery in Chinese real estate
    • CNBC: Economists expect housing inflation to slow sharply amid data quirks
S&P 500, daily chart, with select indicators.

Company News

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): New AI-focused chip coming in Q3
  • Catalent (CTLT) rebounds after earnings, revenue beat
  • Carnival (CCL), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) jump after JPMorgan sees bookings improve
  • Oracle (ORCL): Earnings, revenue beat
  • Health insurers drop on unexpected surgery surge
  • Lennar (LEN): Earnings Revenue beat

Mover of the Week: Yext

  • Earnings, revenue, guidance beat forecasts on June 6
  • Content-customization software with AI features
  • Little changed since April 2017 IPO
  • YEXT +101% YTD

Upcoming Events

  • This afternoon: Adobe (ADBE) earnings
  • Friday 6/16: Quad witching, consumer sentiment
  • Monday 6/19: Juneteenth market holiday
  • Tuesday 6/20: Housing starts, building permits, FedEx (FDX) earnings
  • Thursday 6/22: Jobless claims, existing home sales

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David Russell is VP of Market Intelligence at TradeStation Group. Drawing on two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them apprised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.