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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 tries to stabilize above trendlines
  • Prices neither overbought nor oversold. Volatility remains historically low.
    • Calm before a bearish storm?
  • Downward price channel may be forming
  • Weekly chart: February’s high was roughly a 50% retracement of last year’s price drop (high to low)
  • Potential resistance at 20-day MA may resemble September downturn

Key Economic News

  • Futures price in 50bp in March, another 25bp by summer after Powell’s hawkish testimony
  • February ADP payrolls, January JOLTs give Fed little reason to pause
S&P 500, daily chart, with key technical indicators and patterns.

Company News

  • Tesla (TSLA) cuts prices, Berenberg downgrades
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) drives chip rally after Dan Loeb buys
  • Broadcom (AVGO) beats estimates, cites artificial intelligence (AI) driver

Leaders & Laggards

  • Technology still leading: Chips, software
  • Solar energy outperforming YTD
  • Airlines outperforming YTD
  • Precious metals fall the most in the past month
  • Real estate, communications, discretionaries fade after January surges

Signals Scan

  • Adobe (ADBE) hits falling 21-day EMA
  • Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN) consolidating above 50-day MAs
  • Airbnb (ABNB), Uber Technologies (UBER): bearish MACD
  • Snap (SNAP) hits falling 200-day MA
  • AbbVie (ABBV) hits falling 50-day MA

Mover of the Week: Arista Networks

Arista Networks (ANET) hit new all-time high on Wednesday, following several headlines:

  • Earnings, revenue beat on 2/13
  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported strong numbers on 2/16
  • BofA identifies ANET as AI beneficiary on 2/28
  • Goldman resumes coverage with buy rating on 3/7

Upcoming Events

  • Friday (3/10): Non-farm payrolls
  • Tuesday (3/14): CPI
  • Wednesday (3/15): PPI, Retail Sales.
    • ADBE reports in post market
  • Thursday (3/16): Housing starts, building permits.
    • FedEx (FDX) reports in post market

Using the Platform

Platform tool of the week: Relative Strength (not RSI)

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