Sizing Up the S&P 500
- 50-day MA nearing “Golden Cross” vs 200-day MA
- 2022 bearish trendline broken
- Breadth: Advance/decline line highest since August
- Sector mix: “risk-on” cyclicals leading, safe-havens lagging.
- Intermarket: Dollar index lowest since April
- Intermarket: VIX trending lower, under 20
- Intermarket: 10-year Treasury yield breaking 3.4 percent
- Flashback (10/10): Paul Tudor Jones watching two-year rates as stock market signal.
Key Economic News:
- Jerome Powell: “We are now in disinflation. That’s great.”
- 2 more payroll reports, 2 more CPI before March 22 meeting & dot plot.
- Congressional testimony in late February.
- Powell will have opportunities to adjust message before next big move.
- OPEC+: Cartel’s “nothing burger” hits crude oil.
- What happens to inflation if oil keeps sliding?
- IMF raises global growth outlook as China reopens
Key Earnings News
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Data centers still strong.
- PC weak, but IDC and Canalys see that market recovering.
- Meta Platforms (META): Zuckerberg refocuses
- Revenue beats, core business upgrades planned.
- Metaverse sidelined, capex plans cut 10-15%
- American Express (AXP): Strong guidance despite earnings miss
- Other financials like COF, DFS gained despite loan-loss provisions
- Is market looking past fear of “default wave?”
- Industrials: Infrastructure investment continues, economic confidence.
- Caterpillar (CAT): Revenue beats by 5%. Stock falls on cost pressures.
- Otis Worldwide (OTIS): Revenue beats
- Pentair (PNR): Earnings, revenue beat
- Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL): Beats estimates, raises dividend
- Homebuilders: PulteHome (PHM) earnings & revenue beat. Orders fall but what happens if mortgage rates fall?
- Healthcare: Safe havens shunned
- Pfizer (PFE): Revenue misses as business slows post-Covid.
- Amgen (AMGN): Revenue beats narrowly amid heavy selling
Leaders & Laggards
- Growth stocks reclaiming leadership over value
- Chinese tech stocks, semiconductors among top performers this year
- Airlines, homebuilders outperforming
- Energy starting to lag after strong 2022
- Only negative sector in trailing 3 months
- “Safety plays” lag: Utilities, healthcare, consumer staples
- Only negative sectors in 2023
Signals Scan
- AngloGold Ashanti (AU): Touches bottom of Keltner Channel
- In Scanner: Price → Low < Indicator → Keltner Channel → LowerBand
- Alibaba (BABA), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Gold Fields (GFI) pullbacks
- 8-day EMA > 21-day EMA
- 8-day EMA > 50-day MA
- %Chg 5 (5 Day) < -3
- Delta Air Lines (DAL): Bullish outside week
Mover of the Week: Align Technology
Align Technology (ALGN): S&P 500’s third-worst performer jumps after earnings & revenue beat.
Upcoming Events
- Tonight: Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Qualcomm (QCOM), Ford Motor (F)
- Friday 2/3: Non-farm payrolls
- Wednesday 2/8: CVS Health (CVS) | Walt Disney (DIS), MGM Resorts (MGM)
- Thursday: 2/9: PepsiCo (PEP)
- No important data next week
Using the Platform
Platform tool of the week: Fibonacci retracement tool
Downloads available here.
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