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S&P Overview: Upside Bias as Volatility Abates
- 10DMA poised for turn-up after 23-session slide.
- 8-day EMA rising for first time since October began.
- Multiple reversal patterns since 10/26: doji, outside day, inside day, etc.
- Eyeing 2800 as target for S&P 500 in next 1-2 weeks.
- Calendar more bullish as tech earnings end, holidays approaches.
- S&P 500 just had best week since March.
- 50-hour MA on @ES once again shows direction.
Politics in Focus:
- TradeStation analytics: No clear market impact of midterms.
- Click here for Don’s Market preview.
- G-20 may be more important than mid-terms for sentiment.
- Mid-term importance potentially muted by Trump reliance on executive actions (tariffs, anti-trust.)
- Strong secular phase for employment?
- Wages gain as oil crumbles.
- U.S. Consumer Confidence rises more than expected to 18-year high.
- China still ailing: Caixin PMI at 28-month low as orders weaken.
- Taiwan, S. Korea GDP misses confirm China-zone slowing.
- Bottom line: Careful of oil, materials, emerging markets.
Rotation Could Be the New Normal
- Tech has several problems: Slowing growth, increased competition, legal/antitrust, higher rates.
- Retailers performing well, have potential catalyst into holidays.
- Homebuilders, financials may have value appeal.
- Airlines, auto makers have value appeal, plus cheaper oil and positive economic backdrop.
- Old-fashioned blue chips on the rise: KO, PG, JNJ, MCD, VZ, WMT. Good for options.
- REITs, Utilities are surprisingly strong.
Don’s Watch List:
- CVS Health (CVS): Earnings in the pre-market.
- Becton Dickinson (BDX): Earnings in the pre-market.
- Ralph Lauren (RL): Earnings in the pre-market.
- Papa John’s (PZZA): Earnings in the post-market tomorrow.
- TripAdvisor (TRIP): Earnings in the post-market tomorrow.
Russell’s Watch List:
- Oil: Can @CL hold $63? $66 retest?
- SMH: Old support at $95 now resistance?
- LULU, TGT holding 100-day MAs. JWN breaking out?
- M, KSS bear hunting (short squeeze) into EPS?
- AAPL may need to test $190 before stabilizing. Long-term trend line.
- This week: Media, tech earnings, Fed meeting (no press conference)
- This weekend: USMC birthday, Singles Day in China
- Next Week: Veterans Day shifts events, Retail sales. Tech, retail earnings.
- Don’t forget about G-20 meeting Nov. 30-Dec. 1.