Market Action Summary: 9/10/18


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S&P 500 overview

Sensing a Bullish Shift in Sentiment

  • Rotation: NFLX $$ → ROKU, P. FB → MTCH, CVNA. INTC → AMD.
  • Global turbulence may keep Fed at 3 hikes … despite better than expected economy!
  • Keep an eye on IPOs, smaller companies into Thanksgiving.
  • Retailers repaired in time for the holidays.
  • Most recent GDP, ISM manufacturing extremely positive.
  • What if stocks can rally despite trade wars?
    • 9/10: Hatzius of GS (former doomsayer): Risks now tilted to upside despite trade.
    • 9/8: NYT, CNBC cautiously praise Trump economy.
    • 9/6: German Ifo Institute raises GDP outlook on private consumption.
    • 9/5: Tony Dwyer: Manufacturing strength to lift SPX another 10%.
    • 8/30: Wieting of Citi: Investment accelerating, economy getting more competitive.
    • 8/28: Todd Gordon: Elliott Wave sees SPX 3500.

Don’s Watch List:

  • Global Brass & Copper (BRSS): Climbs after executive sells shares.
  • Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): Value-play pullback.
  • DR Horton (DHI): Quality home builder.
  • Pinnacle Foods (PF): Food stock w/double-digit profit growth.
  • Intel (INTC) vs Advanced Micro (AMD): Dueling chip stocks.

Russell’s Watch List:

  • TRN, RAIL deep pullbacks amid railroad rally.
  • Four Hoursemen of the Retail Post-Apocalypse: LULU, JWN, TGT, WMT
  • CMG holding 50DMA pullback.
  • MSFT calls for continuation swing. (Did you see our Greek of the Week?)
  • New tech “rocket” list: CVNA, ROKU, GLUU, MTCH, P.
  • QLYS breakout potential.
  • BKNG on wrong side of buy-sell dynamic. Becoming source of funds like FB?
  • Nice pullbacks but need to stabilize: ANET, TPR
  • IBB pulls back to 50DMA after making new high. Earnings have beat, healthcare strong.
  • Small device/bio watch list: VSTM, BLFS, ABUS, VKTX

Events to Watch:

  • Wed. 9/12: iPhone launch, Beige Book.
  • Thur 9/13: ECB early, China data late.
  • Fri 9/14: Retail sales
  • Next week: Housing data.
  • 9/24 week: FOMC, durable goods, final GDP revision.
  • October:
    • 10/7: Brazilian elections begin
    • 10/17: Canada cannabis legalization
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David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.