Earlier today, we highlighted the spreading risk of global debt and currency problems.
But what does it mean for the chart most of us really care about, the S&P 500? Here are some thoughts.
First, the U.S. index is in the midst of its longest weekly winning streak since mid-December.. up five straight weeks and trying for a sixth right now. It’s been a nice run. Bulls might take some profits.
Second, the S&P 500 is stalling at the same area where it gapped lower in January before crashing. Some chart watchers may see that price zone around 2850 becoming resistance.
Third, the quiet period of late August is approaching. Earnings season and big economic reports are mostly finished. Does it make sense to expect a breakout on low volume with no catalysts? Or, will the happy news of strong profits (now mostly priced in) be replaced by the unhappy news of global financial crisis (not yet priced in)?
In conclusion, this isn’t a trade recommendation and everyone needs to do their own homework. But the S&P 500 could have halted at a key level as the mix news headlines turns from positive to negative. For the time being, there may be no way to go but lower. Meanwhile, Cboe’s VIX “Fear Index” is coming off its deepest trough in almost eight months.
