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Next market trends on July 11.
Sizing Up the S&P 500
- S&P 500 forms tight consolidation above old highs after quick advance
- Price action potentially similar to November
- Strength follows weekly signals:
- VIX closed under 12
- S&P 500 had new weekly closing high
- “No-cut” environment may favor growth over cyclicals.
News, Views & Trends
- Nvidia (NVDA) earnings, revenue, guidance higher than expected.
- 10-for-1 stock split continues trend of strategic actions by Nasdaq giants.
- Snowflake (SNOW) revenue, guidance beat.
- Will traders eye 2/29 gap around $195?
- Solar jumps as sentiment turns
- UBS sees AI-electricity demand boosting FSLR
- China solar makers issue statement against dumping
- Note: Utilities, with solar/wind and AI energy exposure, have already rallied
- Housing weakens.
- Existing home sales -1.9% vs +0.5% estimate in April. Supply rises from 3.2 months to 3.5 months.
- Reffkin of Compass (COMP) tells CNBC: Sellers now exceed buyers, most price drops in 10 years in U.S. housing.
- Good news for inflation?
- Energy weakens
- Inventories higher +1.8mln vs -2.4mln estimate.
- Reuters: Brent internals, refiner margins suggest demand is weakening
- Good news for inflation?
- Strategists remain bullish:
- Ed Yardeni: Earnings growth my push S&P 500 to 8,000 by 2030
- Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley raises S&P 500 target from 4,500 to 5,400
- Goldman Sachs: Chinese stocks may climb further
- Tech beyond AI:
- J.P. Morgan: PC growth may support HPQ
- Citi: Potential analog rebound may support TXN, MDHP, ADI
- Retail earnings:
- Walmart (WMT) earnings, revenue beat on comp sales, ecommerce, advertising
- Target (TGT) margins narrow on price cutting
- TJX (TJX) jumps to new highs as earnings, revenue beats
Upcoming Events
- Mon 5/27: Memorial Day
- Wed 5/29: Earnings: CRM, HPQ, ANF, DKS
- Thu 5/30: GDP revision, initial jobless claims, crude oil inventories (1 day late)
- Earnings: COST, MRVL, MDB, DELL, GPS, ZS, BBY
- Fri 5/31: PCE inflation
