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Next market trends on July 11.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 forms tight consolidation above old highs after quick advance
  • Price action potentially similar to November
  • Strength follows weekly signals:
    • VIX closed under 12
    • S&P 500 had new weekly closing high
  • “No-cut” environment may favor growth over cyclicals.
S&P 500, daily chart, with select studies and patterns.

News, Views & Trends

  • Nvidia (NVDA) earnings, revenue, guidance higher than expected.
  • Snowflake (SNOW) revenue, guidance beat.
    • Will traders eye 2/29 gap around $195?
  • Solar jumps as sentiment turns
    • UBS sees AI-electricity demand boosting FSLR
    • China solar makers issue statement against dumping
    • Note: Utilities, with solar/wind and AI energy exposure, have already rallied
  • Housing weakens.
    • Existing home sales -1.9% vs +0.5% estimate in April. Supply rises from 3.2 months to 3.5 months.
    • Reffkin of Compass (COMP) tells CNBC: Sellers now exceed buyers, most price drops in 10 years in U.S. housing.
    • Good news for inflation?
  • Energy weakens
    • Inventories higher +1.8mln vs -2.4mln estimate.
    • Reuters: Brent internals, refiner margins suggest demand is weakening
    • Good news for inflation?
  • Strategists remain bullish:
    • Ed Yardeni: Earnings growth my push S&P 500 to 8,000 by 2030
    • Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley raises S&P 500 target from 4,500 to 5,400
    • Goldman Sachs: Chinese stocks may climb further
  • Tech beyond AI:
    • J.P. Morgan: PC growth may support HPQ
    • Citi: Potential analog rebound may support TXN, MDHP, ADI
  • Retail earnings:
    • Walmart (WMT) earnings, revenue beat on comp sales, ecommerce, advertising
    • Target (TGT) margins narrow on price cutting
    • TJX (TJX) jumps to new highs as earnings, revenue beats

Upcoming Events

  • Mon 5/27: Memorial Day
  • Wed 5/29: Earnings: CRM, HPQ, ANF, DKS
  • Thu 5/30: GDP revision, initial jobless claims, crude oil inventories (1 day late)
    • Earnings: COST, MRVL, MDB, DELL, GPS, ZS, BBY
  • Fri 5/31: PCE inflation
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