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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • Index -1.6% yesterday, biggest drop since September 21.
  • Potential levels:
    • 4800 (weekly peaks in December, early January)
    • 4765 (50% retracement of breakout above July high)
  • RSI falling from overbought, returning into Keltner Channel.
  • Potential catalysts:
    • Non-farm payrolls tomorrow
    • CPI on 2/13
    • Fed minutes on 2/21
S&P 500, daily chart, showing key patterns and indicators.

Key News

  • Hawkish news:
    • December JOLTs job openings 9.03mln vs 8.75mln est. November revised up.
    • Fed wants more confidence before cutting rates. Powell downplays March.
  • Dovish news:
    • Chinese manufacturing remains in contraction.
    • U.S. Treasury planned issuance 6% below estimates
    • Crude-oil, gasoline inventories increase
    • Q4 employment cost index +0.9% vs +1% estimate
  • Tesla (TSLA) sees $10 billion of capex, partly to build superchargers.
  • Good bank, bad bank:
    • Oppenheimer: BAC, C, JPM, MS, UBS are “significantly undervalued”
    • New York Community Bancorp (NYB) craters on unexpected loss, dividend cut (resulting from acquisitions of Signature Bank, Flagstar Bank).
  • Consumer confidence at 2yr high on inflation, employment optimism.

Mover of the Week: Photronics PLAB

  • Photomasks for semiconductor production
  • 12/13: Stronger demand in April, July fiscal quarters forecast
    • Management cited chip cycle upswing (echoing SIA)
    • Bloomberg: U.S. chip restrictions boosting Chinese demand for chip-capital equipment
  • PLAB trades for 15x EPS, 2x sales.
    • Rivals like AMAT 20x, 5x. LRCX 28x, 8x.
  • PLAB +55% in last year

Upcoming Events

  • Earnings this afternoon: AAPL, AMZN, META, MCHP
  • Fri 2/2: Non-farm payrolls
    • Earnings: XOM, CVX, ABBV
  • Mon 2/5
    • Earnings: CAT, MCD, ON, PLTR
  • Tue 2/6
    • Earnings: F, LLY, AMGN, ENPH
  • Wed 2/7
    • Earnings: BABA, UBER, ARM, DIS, PYPL

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