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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • S&P 500 holds middle of range near June high
  • 2nd consecutive inside week
  • RSI in middle of range
  • Treasury yields potentially near peaks with double top in 10-year and outside days
  • Potential support at 4444
  • Potential resistance at 4528

Sector Watch

  • Utilities rebound after false breakdown. A signal for rates?
  • Consumer discretionaries, financials take leadership from technology
  • Airlines, semiconductors lag

Key News

  • CPI: Inflation potentially better than appears
    • Headline inline +0.6%. Core +0.3% vs +0.2% estimate
    • Key shelter component (38% of index) rose +0.29%, the least since August 2021
  • Crude oil inventories +2mln barrels as SPR inches higher
  • Brett Eversole of Stansberry: Short interest in 10-year Treasury futures (@TY) creates upside risk in price, downside risk in yields
  • FactSet: Fewest companies cited inflation last quarter in 2 years
  • Financial sector:
    • Citi (C) rallies on job cuts, reorganization
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) climbs after Barclays presentation
    • S&P: Bank M&A highest since July 2022 as confidence recovers
Monthly change in shelter inflation, courtesy of St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Upcoming Events

  • Monday (9/19): NAHB Housing market index
  • Tuesday (9/19): Housing starts / building permits
  • Wednesday (9/20): Fed meeting w/Dot Plot
  • Thursday (9/21): Jobless claims

Using the Platform

Commitments of Traders: COT Net Position:

  • Weekly data showing long/short positions of different futures traders
  • “Non-commercial” represents institutional speculators like hedge funds and CTAs (commodity trading advisers)
  • Treasury futures:
    • 2-year Treasury Note (@TU)
    • 5-Year Treasury Note (@FV)
    • 10-year Treasury Note (@TY)
    • 30-Year Treasury Note (@US)

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

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David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.