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Sizing Up the S&P 500
- VIX nears February 2020 low
- Advance/Decline Line rises as breadth catches up
- S&P 500 potentially overbought above Keltner Channel
- CME FedWatch: Fed pause/skip priced in next week
- Value and cyclicals take lead as new month begins
- Nasdaq-100: Bearish outside candle on Wednesday
Key News
- More signs of inflation potentially cooling:
- Cox Automotive’s Manheim used car prices -2.7% in May
- Indeed wage tracker showed continued slowing in May
- May unemployment higher than expected, wages miss
- ISM manufacturing prices fall “in dramatic fashion,” services also down
- Q1 non-farm productivity revised higher
- More re-industrialization of America: April factory construction +104%
- Caution in chips:
- Citi’s Chris Danely sees historic premium, weakness outside of AI
- World Semiconductor Trade Statistics sees market shrinking 10.3% in 2023 as Asia Pacific drops 15.1%
Market Trends to Watch
- Interest rates may slide in 2H
- Potential value opportunities in banks, cruise ships, airlines
- Re-industrialization of America
- AI / growth continuation
- Housing may still face healthy supply/demand environment
- Potential European opportunities if U.S. dollar continues lower
Mover of the Week: MongoDB (MDB)
- Earnings, revenue beat on 6/1 as customer additions grow
- Management sees potential demand boost from AI
- MDB +25% so far this month.
Signals Scan
- Hess (HES) reclaims 200-day MA
- United Airlines (UAL) potential ascending triangle
- Motorola Solutions (MSI) holds bottom of Keltner Channel
- Alphabet (GOOGL), Palantir (PLTR) bearish outside days
- On Semiconductor (ON): New 52-week high
- Catalent (CTLT): MACD rising near bearish gap
- First Solar (FSLR): Potential A-B-C correction may target $170
- BorgWarner (BWA): Consolidation at 50-day MA
Upcoming Events
- Tuesday, 6/13: CPI
- Wednesday 6/14: PPI, Fed w/ Dot Plot
- Thursday 6/15: Retail sales
- Friday 6/16: Quad witching
Using the Platform
“MACD cross days” custom indicator for potential momentum turns.
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above
| ETF | 1 Year | 5 Years | 10 Years |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | 1.19% | +54.22% | +155.64% |
As of May 31, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.
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