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Sizing Up the S&P 500

  • VIX nears February 2020 low
  • Advance/Decline Line rises as breadth catches up
  • S&P 500 potentially overbought above Keltner Channel
  • CME FedWatch: Fed pause/skip priced in next week
  • Value and cyclicals take lead as new month begins
  • Nasdaq-100: Bearish outside candle on Wednesday

Key News

  • More signs of inflation potentially cooling:
    • Cox Automotive’s Manheim used car prices -2.7% in May
    • Indeed wage tracker showed continued slowing in May
    • May unemployment higher than expected, wages miss
    • ISM manufacturing prices fall “in dramatic fashion,” services also down
    • Q1 non-farm productivity revised higher
  • More re-industrialization of America: April factory construction +104%
  • Caution in chips:
    • Citi’s Chris Danely sees historic premium, weakness outside of AI
    • World Semiconductor Trade Statistics sees market shrinking 10.3% in 2023 as Asia Pacific drops 15.1%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPDR) with select indicators and levels.

Market Trends to Watch

  • Interest rates may slide in 2H
  • Potential value opportunities in banks, cruise ships, airlines
  • Re-industrialization of America
  • AI / growth continuation
  • Housing may still face healthy supply/demand environment
  • Potential European opportunities if U.S. dollar continues lower

Mover of the Week: MongoDB (MDB)

  • Earnings, revenue beat on 6/1 as customer additions grow
  • Management sees potential demand boost from AI
  • MDB +25% so far this month.

Signals Scan

  • Hess (HES) reclaims 200-day MA
  • United Airlines (UAL) potential ascending triangle
  • Motorola Solutions (MSI) holds bottom of Keltner Channel
  • Alphabet (GOOGL), Palantir (PLTR) bearish outside days
  • On Semiconductor (ON): New 52-week high
  • Catalent (CTLT): MACD rising near bearish gap
  • First Solar (FSLR): Potential A-B-C correction may target $170
  • BorgWarner (BWA): Consolidation at 50-day MA

Upcoming Events

  • Tuesday, 6/13: CPI
  • Wednesday 6/14: PPI, Fed w/ Dot Plot
  • Thursday 6/15: Retail sales
  • Friday 6/16: Quad witching

Using the Platform

“MACD cross days” custom indicator for potential momentum turns.

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

ETF1 Year5 Years10 Years
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)1.19%+54.22%+155.64%

As of May 31, 2023. Based on TradeStation Data.

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David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial. Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.